We all remember what happened last July.
The Red Sox entered the month three games up in the American League East, then exited the month having fallen out of first place without adding any immediate help at the trade deadline.
Chaim Bloom and Co. were ready to shoulder the blame until late arrival Kyle Schwarber put the team on his back in mid-August and the Sox narrowly snuck into the postseason.
This July should be even more strenuous.
The Red Sox will get a challenging welcome back to Fenway Park for Independence Day on Monday, when the Tampa Bay Rays come up for a four-game series that’ll set up an entire month of stiff competition.
The Rays are coming off three straight wins in which they scored 24 runs against the Blue Jays, this after enduring an extended slump at the plate that lasted nearly all of June. The Sox are up just one game on the Rays in the division and a half-game ahead of the Jays.
But this series isn’t the last of it. Beginning Monday, each of the Sox’ next 27 games come against teams with a winning record. Their next 14 games are exclusively against the Rays and Yankees, first at home, then in Tampa and New York, respectively.
That brings them into the All-Star break, which they’ll come out of with three games against the Jays, four against Cleveland, three against Milwaukee and three against Houston.
It’s a gauntlet, and it’s why the Sox’ remaining schedule is considered the most difficult in baseball, according to the website Tankathon, which measures strength of schedule based on the average winning percentage of remaining opponents. The .546 winning percentage of the teams the Sox will play the rest of the year is far and away the most difficult; the Rockies are second with a .531 opponents winning percentage.
And don’t be fooled from the Sox’ big June in which they looked like a juggernaut in the American League. They went 20-6 in the month. But when playing against teams that look like playoff contenders (the Cardinals, Guardians and Blue Jays), the Sox went 5-4. They’re 15-16 against teams with winning records this year.
The best thing that’ll happen to them this week is they’ll skip Rays ace Shane McClanahan, who has a 1.74 ERA and looks poised to start the All-Star Game for the A.L. He pitched Saturday against the Jays and shouldn’t pitch again until Thursday, when the Rays leave town.
It should be an evenly-matched series, with the Rays holding the edge in the pitching department and the Red Sox looking like the premier offensive team.
This Sox team isn’t at full strength.
Michael Wacha has a “heavy arm” according to manager Alex Cora, so Austin Davis will start Monday’s series opener. The red-hot Nick Pivetta gets Tuesday’s game, but the Sox haven’t yet announced a starter for Wednesday. Could it be Brayan Bello, the highly-anticipated prospect who has a 2.81 ERA with 72 strikeouts in 51-1/3 innings with Triple-A Worcester since his promotion?
Cora didn’t rule it out when talking to reporters in Chicago on Sunday.
Things will look different when Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi are back in the rotation and Garrett Whitlock is back in the bullpen, where he’ll be going when he recovers from hip inflammation that’s kept him out the last month.
It was weird to see the Sox take Whitlock out of the pen earlier this season, and it’s even weirder that, after talking about how important it was that he develop as a starting pitcher for the future, now they’re sending him back to the ‘pen once again.
Roping around young pitchers between the rotation and bullpen is rarely a recipe for success, at least not in Boston, where Daniel Bard, Brandon Workman and Matt Barnes have experienced various amounts of success and failures after similarly having their roles changed multiple times early in their careers.
But there’s little doubt it’s what the team needs most right now. Once they have Whitlock in a bullpen that also includes Tanner Houck and the unstoppable force that is John Schreiber, Cora will finally have some options.
As iffy as the pen has been lately, it worked seven strong innings on Sunday to lead the Sox to a 4-2 win over the Cubs in 11 innings.
There are bigger questions on this team currently.
Xander Bogaerts needed seven stitches on his thigh after getting spiked on a play at second base Sunday, and one would think he’ll need a little rest before he’s ready to play again.
J.D. Martinez and Trevor Story are stuck in bad slumps that are likely to cause Martinez to be left off the All-Star Game roster and Story’s OPS to fall back beneath .700.
Neither of this are long-term concerns, but concerns nonetheless.
At some point in the next month, the Sox will have to decide whether they’re comfortable with some combination of Bobby Dalbec/Franchy Cordero and/or Triston Casas at first base, or if they need to address the position at the trade deadline.
Same goes with the outfield. Is Jarren Duran the answer or will Kiké Hernandez regain his starting job when he returns from a hip flexor strain?
There’s a lot to look for in the next month. And with the Sox playing only winning teams, it’ll be a good test as they look to prove to the front office just how much they’re worth investing in before the Aug. 2 trade deadline.
