PITTSBURGH — The NCAA baseball season ended Monday night with LSU topping Florida in Game 3 of the College World Series. Now comes the real intrigue, at least locally.
With the first overall pick, the Pirates get to choose between a pair of Tigers, outfielder Dylan Crews and pitcher Paul Skenes — though they could obviously go off the board with their selection, but we’ll leave that for another day.
While Crews has been the consensus top pick, Skenes has gained considerable ground thanks to his continued dominance this season and the uniqueness of someone 6-foot-6, 250 pounds regularly throwing 100 mph.
In this exercise, we’ll debate the merits of taking the otherworldly outfielder versus the otherworldly pitcher, a discussion that should consume much of the conversation surrounding the Pirates until the first night of the MLB draft on July 9.
Sample size
This likely goes to Crews, a three-year starter for LSU and someone who will finish his college career with 58 home runs, a .380 average, 184 RBIs and 1.187 OPS in 196 college games.
Crews has been one of college baseball’s best hitters for three years, arguably the best. It’s not a fad. Had it not been for COVID-19, Crews might’ve turned pro in 2020. But he went to LSU and dominated from Day 1.
At the same time, Skenes enjoyed a prolific career, too. It’s just so happened that the first two years of it came at Air Force, where he played as a freshman and sophomore.
This season at LSU, Skenes went 12-2 with a 1.69 ERA in 19 starts, walking 20 and striking out 209 in 122 2/3 innings.
Both accomplished a lot, and they did so at one of the best college baseball programs, a powerhouse that just won its seventh national championship.
Off-field makeup
Neither player includes much that is concerning. Or anything.
Crews, who has been compared to Kris Bryant and Adley Rutschman among recent draft prospects, enjoyed a humble upbringing in Longwood, Fla. He has long been a baseball rat, obsessed with honing his craft while possessing incredible talent from a young age.
Skenes was cut from a similar cloth while growing up in Lake Forest, Calif. Several family members are in the armed forces. He started his college his career at Air Force for a reason.
Transitioning into pro ball obviously won’t be easy, but Crews and Skenes appear to be properly equipped to embrace the grind and the failure that will inevitably be part of rising up through the ranks.
Potential growth
As dominant as Crews has been, it should be noted the incredible rise that Skenes experienced in 2023. After averaging around 94 mph with his fastball in 2022, that jumped to 98 mph in 2023, topping out as high as 103.
In addition to a 70-grade heater, Skenes also has a 70-grade slider, which he changed this season to feature more horizontal sweeping action. The whiff rate has been consistently impressive, and he has a very good change-up that has rarely been needed.
If Skenes can continue his recent trajectory, it's borderline scary what he could become.
Finding fit
There’s not an MLB team out there where Skenes’ profile would be unwelcome, but it’s also easy to see how Crews would fit into the Pirates’ organization-wide approach.
Draft observers are obviously aware of his power, elite bat speed and incredible exit velocities, Crews has a discerning batting eye and has the ability to command an at-bat.
Although their current success with such things this season can certainly be debated, the Pirates clearly have a predilection for players with a plan at the plate.
When he steps into the batter’s box, Crews operates with a maturity that often belies someone of his age, an instant plus when it comes to moving up through the minor league ranks.
Mitigating risk
There’s always going to be more risk taking a pitcher than a position player because of arm injuries inherent to the position.
It’s also less of a sure thing that Skenes delivers on his enormous potential.
Taking Crews wouldn’t absolve them of any sort of risk; it’s never a guarantee that prospects will pan out. But it does seem that Crews would likely qualify as the safer pick in this spot, just because he’s not a pitcher.
Draft strategy
Unlike other drafts, much of what we see in MLB involves signability and how teams choose to appropriate their allotted bonus pools. In the Pirates’ case, we’re talking about a record $16,185,700 that they will be able to spend on their picks.
With super agent Scott Boras representing Crews, it’s hard to see him accepting anything below premium money to sign with the Pirates. Not that they should be genuinely scared Crews won’t sign with them.
The report that came out via ESPN that Crews might be unwilling to sign with the Pirates was likely posturing and trying to wring every available dollar out of the pick, which is to be expected for someone of his caliber.
Think about it: If the Pirates took Crews, would he really turn down what will almost assuredly be the largest signing bonus in history? Slot value for the top pick is $9,721,000.
But if the Pirates want to employ a strategy similar to what they did in 2021 with Henry Davis, spreading some of that money around to other picks, it’s entirely possible that Skenes would make more sense in this spot.
(Note: The Pirates have routinely spent every available dollar since MLB shifted to a capped system, and team president Travis Williams promised last week that they will again do that in 2023.)
Market efficiency
Given their spending constraints at the major league level — some by their own doing and also the reality for a small-market team — they’re probably never going to spend what it will cost to obtain premium pitching on the free-agent market.
Taking Skenes could be a way to bypass that, obtaining a generational arm for what will inevitably become a huge discount.
The downside, of course, is what was mentioned above: There’s inherently more risk because of arm health — and also the fact that the hit rate is traditionally lower on elite pitchers than it is with premium hitters.
But if you’re looking to task a risk to potentially obtain huge value, Skenes is the guy.
Pirates’ needs
If you look at the Pirates’ list of top prospects, according to MLB Pipeline, you will notice plenty of pitchers up high: Quinn Priester, Anthony Solometo, Bubba Chandler, Mike Burrows and Jared Jones, to name a few.
There’s also Thomas Harrington, J.P. Massey and Hunter Barco among recent drafts. All are squarely within the top 15.
But something the Pirates lack is a premium hitting outfielder. The best options there, outside of converting Endy Rodriguez: Lonnie White Jr. (No. 12) or Matt Gorski (No. 15). And it’s likely neither one inspires a ton of confidence.
No team in the MLB draft picks based on major league need. However, if you look organizationally at a type of player the Pirates could really use, it’s absolutely a power-hitting, five-tool position player — one capable of patrolling center field and anchoring a lineup for many years to come.
