If this weekend’s Japanese Grand Prix is to be a long, protracted victory march to a second world title for Max Verstappen, it got off to an inauspicious start.
The Dutchman managed just four laps of the Suzuka track in the RB18 today, although two of them were initially quick enough to briefly top the timesheets before being leapfrogged by others.
The defending champion was sensibly taking no risks amid the torrential downpours, which have been a feature of past race weekends in Japan, where Formula One is returning for the first time since the 2019 season as a result of the Covid epidemic.
As a public relations exercise for Red Bull, it would be the perfect location to seal the drivers’ crown for Verstappen, with four races still remaining. It is a home race for their engine supplier Honda, whose name returns to the car’s livery this weekend in a nod of a strengthening relationship.
For Verstappen, there is a straightforward way he can win the title. Victory and the fastest lap would make him a two-time champion, immaterial of what the rest of the field does.
If he wins, as is predicted on a circuit which ought to suit the Red Bull, but cannot take the extra point for fastest lap, then he would need his closest rival, Charles Leclerc, to finish third or lower. Should Verstappen end up second, Leclerc would need to be fifth or below. Essentially, he needs eight more points than Leclerc and six more than teammate Sergio Perez.
Amid all the in-race number crunching from the Red Bull pitwall should Verstappen not be leading as the grid approaches the chequered flag, Leclerc said that it is a mere formality how the season’s end will play out.
“Realistically, Max is going to be champion,” said the Ferrari driver, who in the early part of the season had threatened to be the frontrunner or at least a closer title rival. “If it’s not this weekend, it is going to be very soon.
“We need to focus on ourselves and try to exercise well the Sunday. We have always been strong and the performance has always been good enough to fight for the wins, apart from some off weekends, and there aren’t many.”
Verstappen has been through this before. It was mathematically possible for him to wrap up title No2 in Singapore last week, only for him to have a dire weekend from start to finish, involving a spat over the team radio in qualifying and him storming off the track before the team briefing after a mess-up over his fuel load.
He knows he is the champion elect but readily admitted he would like to make it official sooner rather than later.
“It would be very nice if it happens here but, if it doesn’t, it will be even more in my favour next race,” he said. “It doesn’t change anything, you just try to maximise everything you can. I need a perfect weekend to clinch the title here but I am not really thinking about it too much. We’ll see what happens.”
Bubbling below the surface are the findings by the FIA with regards to the cost cap and any breaches, which will be made public on Monday, five days later than promised.
Red Bull look certain to be exonerated or at the very worst be found guilty of a minor infringement, in stark contrast to reports last weekend that they had exceeded it by millions last season in their quest to catapult Mercedes at the front of the grid.
