Japanese voters head to the polls in five constituencies on Sunday, elections that could sway Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s decision on whether to call a general election in the coming months.
The premier’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party is fighting to keep the three seats it previously held of the five. Managing to take a fourth would further fuel speculation that Kishida may opt for a national election after hosting the Group of Seven summit in Hiroshima from May 19-21.
The timing of the general election may also play into monetary policy, as the Bank of Japan would face pressure to avoid any changes that could disrupt the markets during campaigning.
While the lower house term doesn’t end until 2025, renewing his mandate could help Kishida keep his party in line as he negotiates a series of difficult debates. Among them are how the deeply indebted country will fund a pledged 60% increase in defense spending amid rising regional threats, and a doubling of outlays on children and families intended to stem a fall in the birthrate.
Support for Kishida’s Cabinet has recovered in recent weeks, helped by his visit to Ukraine last month, as well as progress toward a rapprochement with South Korea. His decision to carry on campaigning after an attempted pipe-bomb attack as he was about to speak in support of a candidate in Wakayama a week ago gained him further points in media polls.
The five constituencies in contention include the one in the southwestern prefecture of Yamaguchi vacated when former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated last year. A race in a neighboring constituency also opened up because Abe’s brother, former Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi, stepped down due to ill health. The others are in Oita, Wakayama and Chiba.
