Prone to frequent natural disasters, Jammu and Kashmir is working on a dynamic real-time online system to raise alerts and coalesce data, including data from the India Meteorological Department, for prompt analysis and liner–form actions to mitigate the impact of any disaster.
The J&K government with the help of technical and financial support of the World Bank has worked out on an online project to connect the spot of disaster to the departments concerned in real time for a prompt action “without wasting time in alerting the departments separately”.
The Integrated Operational Forecasting System is being put in place under the Jhelum and Tawi Flood Recovery Project (JTFRP), set up after the 2014 devastating floods that saw an estimated loss of ₹1 trillion to the Kashmir division and around 300 deaths in J&K.
“A dynamic online website will be maintaining a record of data on disasters, whether big or small, over a period of time. It would even include incidents like fire beside cloudbursts, floods, landslips etc. It will analyse real time data from the IMD and two radar systems being placed in J&K,” Dr. Murali Krishna, lead consultant of the RMSI Private Ltd, said in Srinagar.
Mr. Krishna said the data, warnings and alerts raised from the spot of any disaster will automatically raise an alarm to the offices related to disaster management in J&K and Ladakh with beforehand enough data and analytical knowledge about the place
Mr. Krishna and another RMSI consultant Pushpendra Johari, who addressed a workshop in Srinagar on Monday, presented a multi–hazard risk assessment report, prepared in the wake of the 2014 floods.
The IOFS uses data modelling and an integrated communication system to prepare for extreme weather events. For example, the flood forecasting module provides forecast of water level for the next three days based on rainfall on gauge stations, the report said. “We will have a dedicated landslip forecast model for Ramban,” Mr. Krishna said. Ramban is the most landslip–prone area on the Srinagar–Jammu national highway and results in frequent suspension of traffic.
He said the IOFS is an automated tool and runs the model at predefined times to generate warnings and disseminate this information in the form of SMS and bulletins.
The report has identified several areas, including Khawas in Rajouri and Tulail in Bandipora, as “very high” on combined hazard index and warned any investment in projects there should be carried out after “appropriate mitigation measures to safeguard these investments”.
The study put the Average Annual Loss (AAL), calculated over a period of time, due to earthquakes in J&K at ₹1,488 crore, which is about .15% of the exposure value. Srinagar and Baramulla have seen highest AAL due to floods, while Rajouri and Kishtwar recorded highest AAL due to earthquakes.
Chief Executive Officer, JTFRP, Syed Abid Rasheed Shah, said the government aims to turn the focus from post–disaster management to pre–disaster risk mitigation to prevent loss of lives and minimise the economic impacts of a disaster.
“The building codes, urban flood management and mathematical survey of Jhelum and Tawi rivers are being carried out too,” Mr. Shah said.
