Jamie Dimon isn’t so sure the U.S. will avoid a recession next year—even if Wall Street is convinced otherwise

Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase (Credit: Jose Sarmento Matos—Bloomberg/Getty Images)

• JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said a U.S. recession could still occur in 2026, despite GDP growing 3.8% last quarter. While emphasizing that JPMorgan is prepared to navigate any downturn, Dimon said in an interview this week he isn’t ruling out weakness ahead and called Washington’s ongoing government shutdown “a bad idea.” His cautious stance contrasts with indicators like the Sahm Rule, which currently show little sign of recession risk.

It would be reassuring for markets to hear Jamie Dimon, the leader of America’s biggest bank and a veteran of Wall Street, say he didn’t see a recession coming. Unfortunately, that’s not the case.