Monday night might have been a reminder that this year’s NFL trade deadline is shaping up to be a doozy.
Right before the Bears and Patriots squared off, the Jacksonville Jaguars sent running back James Robinson to the New York Jets in a significant trade for the latter. The Jets — still somewhat reeling from unfortunate news of an ACL tear for the promising Breece Hall — got a starting caliber tailback for what amounts to a potential conditional fifth-round pick.
For a Jets team suddenly in the thick of a competitive AFC, it’s good work, on paper. Meanwhile, the Jaguars flipped a player they weren’t going to keep long-term for solid draft capital. Also, good work, on paper!
Let’s break down the ins and outs of this deal that might keep the Jets afloat in a surprising year while helping the Jaguars along in a rebuild.
The details
The Jets get: RB James Robinson
The Jaguars get: A sixth-round draft pick in the 2023 draft with undisclosed conditions that can turn it into a fifth-round selection.
New York Jets
It would’ve been malpractice on the Jets’ part if they didn’t find a way to replace Hall’s Offensive Rookie of the Year production with another back at this deadline. Right now, New York is 5-2 in a loaded AFC. But Zach Wilson isn’t doing much to buoy the Jets as a potential contender. This is a squad held together by strings and glue around a versatile ground game and a punishing defense. For now.
Like my colleague Christian D’Andrea (kind of) asserts, I’m not sure that the Jets can simply let Wilson throw the ball downfield at will. When that happened, he was a turnover machine as a rookie, and he seems to be locked into perma-check-down mode out of frozen fear at the moment. But until when (or if) the Jets unleash their quarterback, they need a bruising ground game to support him and the rest of the offense as necessary.
In terms of actual confirmed backs available at the trade deadline, they don’t get much better than Robinson. Especially for a late Day 3 draft pick. A former 1,000-yard rusher as a rookie, Robinson’s production slowly dipped over the past couple of years as the Jacksonville diversified. That should no longer be an issue for a player who will be the feature back in New York for at least the rest of the season.
Did I mention that Robinson caught 80 passes over his first two years? Or that he’s scored 22 touchdowns on the ground and in the air, despite turning into a platoon back of late? For a sixth-rounder at worst and zero commitments to an affordable and pending UFA beyond this season — I think the “partially-in” Jets and GM Joe Douglas have a home run of a move on their hands.
Grade: A
Jacksonville Jaguars
That Trent Baalke has quite the poker face, doesn’t he?
At 2-5 near the midseason mark, moving Robinson might not be the last trade Baalke makes in the coming days. Jacksonville’s future could be bright with Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson, but it should definitely be a seller looking to recoup assets to continue a rebuild through the 2023 offseason. Trading Robinson was an excellent start in that ongoing mission.
With Travis Etienne starting to blossom as the lead tailback, Robinson just didn’t have a future with Jacksonville. They weren’t going to pay him to stay as an RB2, and he wouldn’t get the requisite touches needed to produce, either. Let’s put it this way: One target and zero carries for Robinson in a loss to the Giants on Sunday isn’t how you use a dynamic, versatile player of his ability.
That the Jaguars could turn someone like Robinson — a 2020 UDFA — into a late Day 3 pick speaks to a quality, evaluative process for an organization trying to build a solid long-term foundation. The player Jacksonville selects with this pick from the Robinson deal likely doesn’t turn into much on his own. That is, if the Jaguars even use the pick. It could be additional seasoning in a big trade down the line. The world is the Jaguars’ oyster.
This is the sort of flexibility you can afford when you deal away superfluous players who have no role on your team anymore at the perfect time. We’re just not used to the Jaguars, of all teams, giving themselves such flexibility. Kudos to Baalke for staying on course and for executing a golden opportunity the seeming moment it presented itself.
I’m grading on a high curve because I love seeing prudent front office work.
Grade: A
