Extreme misfortune could have derailed the Orlando Magic’s season. Paolo Banchero went down with an oblique injury early on. Franz Wagner, somehow, left the court with the same injury two weeks ago. For many teams, significant injuries to star players would send them spiraling.
Instead, it’s mid-December and the Magic sit at 17-11 with a top-10 net rating (plus-3.7) and a top-four defense (107.4 points allowed per 100 possession) according to Cleaning the Glass. They tread water on the back of head coach Jamahl Mosley and their defensive foundation, but somebody must dribble the basketball. That person has been Jalen Suggs, who’s taken another offensive leap in year four.
With Wagner out of the fold, Suggs has taken the reins of Orlando’s offense. He’s averaged a career-high 16.3 points per game this season. Efficiency and impact metrics don’t paint a rosy picture of Suggs’s on-ball offense, though. His 53.5 percent true shooting and minus-1.0 Offensive Estimated Plus-Minus are the lowest figures since his rookie season.
Embracing A Bigger On-Ball Role
Most young players see efficiency declines when their teams thrust them into higher usage roles and that’s no different with Suggs. His 25.7 percent usage rate is the highest of his career. He’s asked to score and create more than ever; according to NBA RAPM, he’s spending nearly double the time with the ball in his hands. His “On-Ball Percent” has jumped from 17 percent last season to 33 percent this year.
Suggs leads the Magic in touches per game (70.3), largely from the perimeter. Much of his efficiency decline stems from his high-volume 3-point shooting. He’s jacking a career-high 8.7 threes per 75 possessions at a 31.4 percent clip. More than doubling his off-dribble jumper frequency from last year, Suggs is confidently pulling from range.
jalen suggs is attempting a career high 8.7 threes per 75 and nearly double the off-dribble jumpers from last season. his efficiency is down, but the confidence and range expansion really open up his offense pic.twitter.com/L814Mgb5A8
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) December 16, 2024
Despite the downtick in efficiency, Suggs’ shooting expansion has opened up his and Orlando’s offense. He’ll pull off the dribble when defenders duck under ball screens and will fire from deeper and deeper distances off of the catch. Defenders must pay greater attention to him, compared to when he spent most of his time catching and shooting.
Warping defenses further from the hoop has loosened Suggs’s driving game. He’s slashing more than ever this season, driving 8.0 times per game, up from 4.5 last season. A frequent pick-and-roll handler, Suggs works himself downhill as opposed to more complementary, off-ball attacking.
His rim volume has remained about the same as last season, converting an elite 71.8 percent of his 4.3 rim attempts per 100 possessions. Nearly 75 percent of his shots at the hoop are unassisted, rendering his efficiency more impressive than it may initially appear. He’s experimenting more in the intermediate, taking 4.3 shots per 100 possessions in the short midrange.
He makes a frigid 33.3 percent of these, but these live game reps will pay dividends down the line. Suggs has started snaking pick-and-rolls to find his floater, working with the space drop coverages provide to him. When smaller defenders check him, he’ll bump and bruise his way into short jumpers.
jalen suggs has nearly doubled his short mid-range frequency from last season, experimenting more with floaters, fadeaways and push shots. the efficiency isn’t great but the live reps are vital pic.twitter.com/Z4V4pSlTpZ
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) December 16, 2024
Wagner and Banchero’s void necessitated Suggs to carry a much larger passing load as well, his assist rate vaulting from 14.7 percent last season to 21.4 percent this year. Despite this passing uptick, his turnover rates have remained largely the same. He’s always flashed impressive passing skills, but Suggs is learning how to make plays as a primary handler.
What This Means For Suggs And The Magic Long-Term
When evaluating a young player’s efficiency fluctuation, we must consider their situation. Last season, while playing alongside Wagner and Banchero, 21 percent more of Suggs’ field came via assists (66 percent vs. 45 percent). The training wheels have fallen off as he pedals faster and faster. He’s going to wobble and shake as he works toward stability.
Hopefully, Banchero and Wagner will return to the court this season before the playoffs. When that happens, Suggs can step back into a more sustainable shot diet he’s thrived with in the past. More open catch-and-shoot threes, attacking closeouts and cuts should spike his efficiency.
He’s still a special guard defender, posting a career-high block rate (3.1 percent) to help anchor Orlando’s elite defense. Most players take significant steps back in their effort levels with increased offensive responsibility, yet Suggs’ motor keeps on churning.
But when the Magic call his number, he can lean on the experience he’s gained from quarterbacking Orlando’s offense. Suggs may never need to carry the lion’s share of the offensive load in high-leverage situations. His ability to scale up and down in usage will make him extremely valuable on championship-caliber teams for years to come. That’s a pleasant silver lining from Orlando’s otherwise gloomy injury situation this season.
