Did you watch Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson this weekend? And when I say "watch it," I mean actually watch the fight rather than watching Netflix buffer on your TV or phone. Because if you're like me, you spent a lot of time watching a red circle trying to spin up rather than any punches.
Now, Netflix lucked out that there weren't too many punches thrown during the fight Friday night. What was billed as a boxing match quickly devolved into farce when it turned out Mike Tyson fights like a 58-year-old man with bad knees ... because he's a 58-year-old with bad knees.
But Netflix will have no such luck this Christmas when it airs a pair of exclusive NFL livestreams. Chiefs vs. Steelers and Ravens vs. Texans will likely feature four playoff-bound NFL teams. The former may be more of a defensive slugfest, but Netflix cannot afford to have the same buffering issues when Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens pour on the points against the Houston Texans, who will likely be scoring plenty of points themselves.
And while you can afford to have people miss a stationary, aged boxer not throwing any punches, they can't afford subscribers missing big plays from the biggest names in the NFL. Especially if it's trying to make live sports a major reason to sign up for the streaming service.
The case against Netflix: This Friday was bad
Let's just get it out of the way — nobody enjoyed watching Jake Paul vs Mike Tyson on Netflix. Setting aside the quality of the fight, buffering issues were rampant, including the Amanda Serrano vs. Katie Taylor fight just before the main event. Just take a look at posts on X (Twitter).
In fact, it may have been the buffering during that fight that caused the greater outrage, as that was a controversial title fight that set social media ablaze. And instead of capitalizing on the moment with tons of buzz about a polarizing decision, that buzz was undercut by nearly as many people complaining they missed the ending.
I'm among that number. I tuned in toward the end of the Serrano vs. Taylor fight only for Netflix to start showing me the Mario Barrios vs. Abel Ramos WBC welterweight title that had already wrapped up. By the time I got through server issues, Serrano was already giving her post-fight interview.
For its part, Netflix has acknowledged things didn't go off without a hitch. In an X post, it said that 60 million households watched Paul vs. Tyson globally and that it "had our buffering systems on the ropes." Serrano vs. Taylor wasn't far behind, with Netflix claiming nearly 50 million global households watched.
If Netflix struggled with nearly 50 million globally, then trying to handle around 34 million in just the U.S. on Christmas Day could be a disaster. According to the NFL, its three Thanksgiving Day games averaged 34.1 million viewers in 2023. Netflix will be hoping for similar numbers with two games on a major U.S. holiday featuring some of the league's best teams — but Friday suggested that they might not be able to handle that.
The case for Netflix: Peacock and Prime Video can do it
Here's the good news for Netflix — the technology for live sports exists. Peacock handles NFL games regularly, including exclusive games. It even handled millions of viewers during an exclusive NFL playoff game last year between the Chiefs and the Miami Dolphins.
Prime Video also regularly provides live sports as well. The Thursday Night Football game between the Buffalo Bills and the Dolphins in Week 2 of the 2024 NFL season hit a Prime Video record of 14.96 million live viewers, and the complaints about buffering were minimal.
And that "minimal" there is important. Buffering sucks, but expecting zero households to have any buffering issues is a fool's errand. Technology is just never that perfect. But if Netflix can make buffering minimal to the point where it's barely in the conversation surrounding the games, then that's a win for the streaming giant.
Verdict: Netflix will eventually succeed, but not without growing pains
As I just mentioned, other streaming services can handle live sports. Basically, all of them can. Netflix is the newbie in this particular arena despite being the global streaming leader (not counting YouTube).
So Netflix too, will eventually get to the point where it handles live sports streaming with minimal issues. The company has too many resources to fail where everyone else has succeeded.
Prime Video's record 14.96 million is a lot of viewers, but it pales in comparison to the 60 million households Netflix claims watched its live event this past Friday.
But nobody has really dealt with the scale of viewership that Netflix could be forced to handle. Prime Video's record 14.96 million is a lot of viewers, but it pales in comparison to the 60 million households Netflix claims watched its live event this past Friday.
So the truth is, while all the streaming services can stream live sports, Netflix may be the only one streaming them to tens up tens of millions of viewers. That means there isn't a blueprint beyond testing server capacities and scaling up as needed, which is guaranteed to come with growing pains.
Netflix now knows it needs to do better than it did with Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson for its NFL Christmas games. And it probably will. But I'd still expect to kill some time opening a present or two while your Netflix app buffers on Christmas day. If I'm wrong, then we just get an unexpected Christmas present from Netflix, and there's nothing wrong with more presents.
