The Jacksonville Jaguars invested a lot of draft picks into their defense, which means they will be counting on a lot of young players to improve it after the unit ranked 20th last season. Of their first four draft selections, three of them were on defense as the team took linebackers Travon Walker, Devin Lloyd, and Chad Muma, respectively.
Of the three, Walker and Lloyd are projected to start as both were first-round selections. The Jags took Walker first overall pick to pair with Josh Allen in hopes of getting to the quarterback more, while Lloyd was added after the Jags released linebacker Myles Jack in free agency. That said, both will have more than their share of opportunities to make an impact.
That’s exactly what ESPN’s Mike Clay believes will happen. In his rookie leader projections, Clay projected the Lloyd to lead the co-league in tackles with 87 alongside Baltimore safety Kyle Hamilton. He also projected Walker to lead all rookies in sacks, giving him just under a 7.5 figure (7.4). Detroit rookie Aiden Hutchinson was close behind and had a projected figure of 7.1.
Here is what he had to say about both players starting with Lloyd.
Hamilton is expected to slide in as the box safety for a Ravens’ defense that figures to use a lot of three-safety looks this season. Though a linebacker generally leads the rookie class in sacks, it wouldn’t be too unusual for a safety (Hamilton in this case) to lead the way. Jeremy Chinn (116 in 2020) and T.J. Ward (105 in 2010) are the last two safeties to pull it off. The same logic applies to Cine, who is the favorite to replace Xavier Woods opposite Harrison Smith in Minnesota.
Lloyd is a good bet for a substantial workload as a rookie, though he will be competing for tackles with fellow inside linebacker Foye Oluokun, who had 192 tackles with Atlanta last season.
And his thoughts on Walker and the league’s rookie pass-rushers.
From 2012-21, 11 edge rushers were selected in the top-five picks. They included Myles Garrett (7.0 sacks as a rookie), Jadeveon Clowney (0.0), Chase Young(7.5), Nick Bosa (9.0), Joey Bosa (10.5), Dion Jordan (2.0), Dante Fowler Jr. (0.0), Clelin Ferrell (4.5), Bradley Chubb (12.0), Ezekiel Ansah (8.0) and Khalil Mack (4.0). That group averaged 5.9 sacks during their rookie seasons — and it rises to 6.5 if we exclude Fowler, who tore his ACL before the season.
The sack projections for Walker, Hutchinson and Thibodeaux (all top-five picks) would rank in the top 20 first-round picks over the past decade. Speaking of first-round picks, Karlaftis has a path to a starting role opposite Frank Clark in Kansas City, whereas Johnson will battle Carl Lawson and John Franklin-Myers for edge work in New York.
According to Clay, these figures are calculated through a thorough process that is both “quantitative (league, team, coaching and player trends) and qualitative (projected depth-chart placement and role).”
As mentioned with Lloyd, Oluokun does complicate things for him a little when projecting his stats. Still, with the way teams like to run the ball in the AFC South, there will be plenty of opportunities to rack up tackles.
As for Walker, the Jags have had a few rookies accumulate seven sacks or more in recent years. The first of them was Yannick Ngakoue (eight), and the second was Josh Allen (10). Both had solid talent playing next to them as rookies, though. For Ngakoue it was Malik Jackson helping out in the interior, and for Allen, it was Calais Campbell, Marcell Dareus, and Ngakoue (on the edge) playing on the same line.
Walker will come into a unit with some solid veteran talent to help him as well when looking at Roy Robertson-Harris, Foley Fatukasi, DaVon Hamilton, and Malcom Brown. While they aren’t the same type of interior rushers that Jackson and Campbell were, they certainly can push the pocket enough to get Walker to the seven or 7.5 sack mark.
