The Lamborghini Veneno of pitching, as I called Jacob deGrom, now sits in the driveway of the Rangers. Sticker price: $185 million over five years, which covers deGrom from ages 35 to 39. And with the pitching beauty you get from deGrom—the most elevated quality of stuff we have ever seen on a mound—you get all that worry about maintenance.
Forget breaking down this contract for value. Nobody ever bought a Lambo or a yacht and bragged about cost efficiency. deGrom is a luxury item: the best pitcher in baseball who needs extra rest and does not pitch deep into games consistently. Over the past two years he has thrown 100 pitches in a game twice. He has pitched on four days of rest in only 10 of his 26 starts and is 3–3 in those games. You don’t drive this ride hard.
Over the past five seasons, from ages 30 to 34, deGrom averaged 20 starts, 129 innings and 7 wins per season. While it would be foolish for the Rangers to expect they will get 30 starts a year from deGrom over the next five, I do believe he will average more innings per year. His mechanics are that smooth—even better over the past few years, as evidenced by the jump in velocity. He is a fabulous athlete. The stress reaction in his scapula he suffered in April is not typically associated with any pattern of arm injury. His injury history is less extensive than it seems; he made virtually every start from 2017 to ’20. And by every indication, deGrom is exactly where he wants to be, which is not New York, where despite his greatness he never took deep root as a beloved franchise icon.
Even if they get 129 innings per year from deGrom, the Rangers, a franchise with six straight losing seasons, just signed the best pitcher on the planet. That’s what matters. Don’t talk to me about deGrom’s age 39 season. The signing makes perfect sense—as long as you don’t get too wonky about the dollar cost per start. When you sign Corey Seager for $325 million, as Texas did last year, you keep the throttle open, just as the Padres did after signing Manny Machado for $300 million (after eight straight losing seasons) and the Phillies did after signing Bryce Harper for $330 million (after six straight losing seasons). Three years later, San Diego and Philadelphia were playing for a spot in the World Series.
Baccellieri: Jacob deGrom Is Worth the Risk for the Rangers
Let’s be clear: The Rangers were 38 games worse than Houston last season. That gap remains large. But Texas does have young pitching on the rise and a solid core of position players. It was fifth in runs scored in the league last season. With deGrom, new manager Bruce Bochy in the dugout, Chris Young in the front office and the rest of the winter to keep spending (plus an expanded playoff), they can begin to think about contending for a wild-card spot as soon as next season.
With deGrom’s exit, the book is now closed on one of the most remarkable—and unfulfilled—foundations of young pitching we saw in the modern era. The Mets won a pennant in 2015 with Noah Syndergaard, then 23, Steven Matz, 25, Matt Harvey, 27 and deGrom, 28, in the rotation and Zack Wheeler, 25, rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. New York hasn’t won another playoff series since then. Syndergaard, Wheeler and deGrom all left as free agents. Matz and Harvey were traded for the combination of a backup catcher who lasted half a season and three pitchers who gave them two wins combined.
Charles LeClaire/USA TODAY Sports
Today the Mets are left with a rotation of Max Scherzer, 38, Carlos Carrasco, 36, David Peterson, 27, and Tylor Megill, 27, which means the price just went up to convince Justin Verlander or Carlos Rodón to sign there.
Maybe deGrom’s exit was in the works. After all, he did stand firm before the season that he was going to opt out. There was no thought of waiting to see how the season played out. It seemed clinical, unemotional for a lifelong Met. The Rangers were willing to put more years on the table, and when you are 34 years old with a history of injuries and the most powerful fastball and breaking pitch in the recorded history of starting pitching, that’s worth more than the 13 years you spent in one organization. If deGrom was looking for a good reason to leave, Texas gave it to him. The Rangers also have a reputation among players as a “red carpet” organization with the way they treat players and their families. Their home ballpark is second to none when it comes to creature comforts and technology. The Dodgers raved during the 2020 playoffs in the Texas bubble about their “home-field advantage”—as the highest seed they used the home facilities at Globe Life Field.
It’s proof again that when you allow a star player to get to the open market, your chance of re-signing that star drops dramatically. Since 2010, 48 free agents have signed contracts worth $100 million or more. Forty-four of them changed teams—92% of stars don’t come back when they get to free agency. The only stars who stayed with their clubs at that pay level in that time were Chris Davis with the Orioles (after the 2015 season), Stephen Strasburg with the Nationals (2019) and Yoenis Céspedes (2016) and Edwin Díaz (2022) with the Mets.
Keep that in mind as Aaron Judge, Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Verlander, Dansby Swanson and Rodon all remain at the top of the free agency market. We already have seen the Astros pay Josê Abreu—coming off a career-low slugging percentage—more money for his age 36 to 38 seasons than he made for his age 33 to 35 years. We have seen the Rays make Zach Eflin, without an ERA under four in any full season, the richest free agent in franchise history. We have seen Díaz become the highest-paid reliever in history. We have seen Rafael Montero, with 29 saves through age 32, get paid like a closer. And now we see deGrom turn questions about durability into five guaranteed years.
The spigot is open, folks. This is the first full free agent market with the new CBA in place and more playoff spots available. You can thank the Phillies for proving a sixth seed is not fool’s gold. Before this spending season is over, you will likely have 21 or so $100 million free agent contracts in the past two years—as many as the previous six years put together. This game always has been about the stars, but perhaps more than ever now. Curb appeal, more than gas mileage, is what turns heads.
