HOUSTON — As the longest season of Zack Wheeler’s career unfolded this month, he approached each postseason start for the Philadelphia Phillies in the same way that Usain Bolt might tackle a long-distance relay race.
Go as fast as you can for as long as you can, then pass the baton to a teammate.
Through his first four starts, Wheeler threw a total of 112 pitches at 97 mph or faster, most of which came in the first or second inning. Never mind that his velocity dipped in the fifth or sixth. Wheeler can pitch at 95 and did for most of the season. But if the Phillies ace is running on a higher octane at the beginning of games, well, as pitching coach Caleb Cotham said, “Just go until you can’t go.”
But Wheeler came out throwing 95 mph Saturday night in Game 2 of the World Series. And not only that, he didn’t throw as many fastballs as usual. The Astros pounced. They hammered three doubles on Wheeler’s first four pitches, raced to a lead, and cruised behind lefty Framber Valdez to a 5-2 victory that evened the best-of-seven series with Game 3 set for Monday night in Philadelphia.
The Phillies achieved the typical objective of getting a split on the road before coming home for the next three games. Of the 61 previous times that the World Series was tied at 1-1, the winner of Game 2 has won the series 50.8% of the time.
If the rest of the series is a coin flip, the Phillies will surely take their chances.
The conspiracy theorists will have their say about why Wheeler threw a dud against the Astros after dominating the St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves, and San Diego Padres in the National League playoffs. The easiest explanation will be that he’s pitching through an injury stemming from the line drive that ricocheted off the inside of his left knee in Game 5 of the NL Championship Series last Sunday.
Stick a pin in that. We’ll get back to it shortly.
Wheeler gave up three runs in the first inning, hardly the start that the Phillies wanted but a deficit that they didn’t think was insurmountable. Not after climbing out of a 5-0 hole midway through Game 1 — against future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander, no less — to steal a 6-5 victory in 10 innings.
But there would be no comeback against Valdez. The Astros’ 17-game winner, who led the American League in innings (2011/3) and had a 2.82 ERA in the regular season, flummoxed the Phillies with his signature sinker and especially his curveball. He got nine swings and misses on his breaking ball and didn’t allow a runner into scoring position until the sixth inning.
The Phillies had a moment in the eighth, when Kyle Schwarber skied a foul ball to right field that was ruled a home run. But the call was overturned, reliever Rafael Montero got Bryce Harper to pop out to shallow right field, and the Astros’ lead was never seriously threatened.
Game 2 boiled down to Wheeler, then, and a performance that paled in comparison to everything else that he has done on a mound this month.
Wheeler gave up three consecutive doubles on his first four pitches. Jose Altuve jumped on a sinker, Jeremy Pena hooked a curveball down the left-field line, and Yordan Alvarez banged a slider off the left-field wall. Wheeler’s fastball averaged 95.6 mph, which was actually in line with his season average. But he maxed out at 96.9 mph, flashing none of the 98s and 99s that he showed six days earlier against the Padres.
It wasn’t even the velocity. Of Wheeler’s 69 pitches, only 15 (22%) were four-seam fastballs. He threw his heater an average of 41.9% of the time during the season. Against the Astros, Wheeler was more of a sinker-slider pitcher.
Wheeler conceded this week that his knee was “sore” for a few days but “feels good” now. He said it was “more of just like an in-the-moment thing where it really hurt and, of course, the next couple days.” The Phillies gave Wheeler an extra day of rest rather than starting him in Game 1 Friday night. But manager Rob Thomson insisted it was because Wheeler has been more effective on five days’ rest than four, not because of his balky knee.
“It hasn’t lingered, no,” Wheeler said before the series began.
Besides, Wheeler took the comebacker off his plant leg, which typically has less effect on a pitcher’s velocity than an injury involving the push leg. And Wheeler was able to continue in the game last Sunday and go through his usual between-starts routine.
In a way, the Phillies may prefer if Wheeler’s knee was the cause of his struggles against the Astros. Because the alternative is even scarier.
What if Wheeler has hit a wall?
It’s a perfectly reasonable possibility. Wheeler led the majors last season with 213 1/3 innings, dealt with shoulder soreness last winter, began the season on time despite not making a start in spring training, and pitched straight through until the middle of August when he missed five starts with forearm tendinitis that evolved into elbow inflammation.
Wheeler returned on Sept. 21 and made his final three regular-season starts, building his way back to 77 pitches. Tack on 30 1/3 innings and a total of 414 pitches in the postseason, and well, it’s been a haul.
“He’s probably feeling a little bit of the downtime and the on-ramp,” Cotham said this week, referring to Wheeler’s progression back from the monthlong shutdown. “He’s just giving everything he’s got. I think that plan is right. It’s like, just go until you can’t go.”
Wheeler hasn’t thrown more than 87 pitches and completed seven innings only once since returning. If he pitches again this season, it would be in Game 6, back in Houston, on Friday night.
The Phillies have to get there. Then, they have to hope their ace has some fuel left in the tank.
