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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

Bank shares rally as Italy waters down windfall tax; UK heads towards five years of lost economic growth – as it happened

Italy United Kingdom Niesr WeWork Economic Growth United States Tui Economy
Piazza Gae Aulenti of Milan, Italy.
Piazza Gae Aulenti of Milan, Italy. Photograph: NurPhoto/Getty Images

Closing post

Time to wrap up – here are today’s main stories:

The UK’s FTSE 100 share index has closed 60 points higher tonight at 7587 points, up 0.8% today.

That’s its highest closing level in a week.

BP gained around 2.5%, lifted by the jump in oil prices today.

Italy’s FTSE MIB has gained around 1.3% today, as bank shares rallied after the new windfall tax was capped.

Here’s CMC Markets’ Michael Hewson on the European stock markets today:

European markets have been in a much more ebullient mood today despite further economic data from China that points to a weakening economy, after headline CPI fell into deflationary territory for the first time since early 2020.

While this comes across as encouraging for inflation trends in Europe, as well as the US, in that it could prompt the end to further rate hikes from central banks here, it does little to paint a positive outlook for a broader China recovery.

Nonetheless markets appear to be trading on the basis that price pressures are likely to ease further, although the best performing sectors are basic resources and energy, with oil prices rising to 9-month highs, and European natural gas prices rising sharply on the back of supply concerns and the prospect of worker strikes at Australian LNG facilities.

In the tech sector, Amazon is in talks to become an anchor investor in the upcoming stock market flotation of British microchip designer Arm.

Energy giant E.On has reported an €8bn (£6.9 billion) increase in its UK sales over the last six months.

PA Media reports:

Sales in the UK rose at breakneck speed, hitting a little under €21bn (£18.1bn), up from €12.8bn (£11bn) a year earlier, the business said.

Adjusted EBITDA – a measure of profit which strips out the impacts of tax and other items – more than doubled in the UK to €839m (£723m).

Across the group adjusted EBITDA was €5.7bn (£4.9bn).

We flagged earlier that UK mortgage rates had only dipped slightly this morning, despite hopes that inflation is easing.

Well, there may be larger moves tomorrow, as three large UK lenders have cut their mortgage costs today.

Nationwide, the second-largest mortgage lender, reduced prices on some fixed products by up to 0.55 percentage points.

HSBC trimmed its costs by as much 0.2 percentage points, while TSB lowered rates by up to 0.4 percentage points. The FT has more details here.

Updated

Australia strike pushes up European gas prices

European gas markets have recorded their biggest surge in prices since Russia invaded Ukraine early last year, following a strike at two major gas export facilities in Australia.

The benchmark price for liquified natural gas cargoes jumped to more than €42 per megawatt hour for the first time since June, the biggest increase since March 2022.

The price surge was ignited after brokers at Chevron and Woodside Energy Group facilities in Australia voted in favour of industrial action.

Callum Macpherson, Head of Commodities at Investec, said:

“A fear that an outage in Australia could increase demand from Asia buyers for LNG that might otherwise come to Europe, has led to today’s spike in prices.

The day-ahead UK gas price has jumped by 25% to 91p per therm, up from 72p/therm yesterday.

Updated

A cautious start to trading in New York sees the Dow Jones industrial average dip by 28 points or 0.08% to 35,286 points.

Wilko suspends home deliveries as it holds talks on rescue deal

The troubled UK budget retailer Wilko has stopped offering home deliveries for orders on its website as it holds last-ditch talks on a potential rescue deal.

The household and garden products retail chain, which has about 400 stores, warned last week that it was on the brink of collapse, with more than 12,000 jobs at risk.

Wilko and its adviser PricewaterhouseCoopers have until Monday to find new funding after filing a legal measure protecting it from creditors for 10 days on Thursday.

Parties potentially interested in a rescue are thought to include Gordon Brothers, which owns Laura Ashley, Hilco, which owns Homebase, and Alteri, the owner of Bensons for Beds, according to a report by Sky News

Rice prices have soared to the highest in almost 15 years in Asia on mounting concerns over global supplies.

Prices jumped as dry weather threatens production in Thailand and after top shipper India banned some exports.

Thai white rice 5% broken, an Asian benchmark, jumped to $648 a ton, the most expensive since October 2008, according to data from the Thai Rice Exporters Association on Wednesday. That brings the increase in prices to almost 50% in the past year, Bloomberg reports.

Don’t tell the Duke brothers, but orange juice futures are at fresh all time-highs this summer.

With supplies dwinding, the Intercontinental Exchange’s frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) futures benchmark has risen to $3.00 a pound, up from $1.76 this time last year.

The FT has more details:

Orange juice futures have surged to fresh all time-highs as a series of hurricanes and the spread of an incurable disease have devastated thousands of acres of citrus crops in the US.

Overall orange juice production in the US is the lowest in “over 100 years”, said Matthew Joyner, chief executive of Florida Citrus Mutual, a trade association representing almost 2,000 growers. “Just over 20 years ago we were producing 240mn boxes, now we’re finishing this season at just under 18mn.”

Updated

Over in the US, mortgage demand has been hit by rising borrowing costs.

Mortgage applications dropped by 3.1% last week, new figures show as borrowers were deterred by higher rates.

CNBC has the details:

Mortgage interest rates soared across the board last week, with the rate on the government’s low down payment option increasing to the highest level in 21 years. That hit mortgage demand hard, with total application volume dropping 3.1% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) increased to 7.09% from 6.93%, with points rising to 0.70 from 0.68 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment. The average rate for jumbo loans hit 7.04%.

More strike news… and train drivers at several rail companies have voted to continue industrial action in their long-running dispute over pay.

Aslef said the results of new ballots for strikes on passenger services in England and on London Underground showed continued support from drivers, PA Media report.

Mick Whelan, general secretary of Aslef, said:

“The results of these new ballots show the determination of our members to win this dispute.

That’s why I am calling on the train companies, and the Government that stands behind them, to do the right thing and return to the negotiating table with a new offer and prevent more disruption to passengers and businesses in Britain.”

Aslef members at Chiltern, East Midlands, Northern and TransPennine voted in favour of continuing with strikes after being reballoted after six months under employment law.

Drivers at c2c were balloted for the first time and also voted heavily in favour.

Drivers at freight operating company Direct Rail Services also voted in favour of industrial action in a separate dispute over pay.

London Underground drivers also backed industrial action in a reballot in another dispute over pay, pensions and conditions.

Finn Brennan, Aslef’s organiser on the Underground, said:

“These huge votes, from the high 90s to 100%, in favour of action, demonstrate just how determined our members are to protect their terms and conditions at work from the effects of the Government’s attack on TfL (Transport for London) funding.

As always, we are prepared to discuss and negotiate, but we will never accept detrimental changes being imposed on Aslef’s members.”

Updated

Oil markets have climbed to their highest price in nine months amid growing tensions between Russia and Ukraine in Black Sea, a key route for Russia’s oil exports.

The price of Brent crude reached highs of just over $87 a barrel on Wednesday morning, the highest price since April this year, while US crude prices climbed to $83.43 which is the highest since last November.

The oil price has climbed in part due to concerns that an escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the Black Sea region could slow Russia’s exports of oil into an already tight global market.

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, told reporters on Tuesday that his country would “pick some targets in order to prevent our waters from being blocked” if Russia continues to dominate the Black Sea.

The Black Sea is a key transit route for Russian exports of oil and oil products.

The risk of disruption has ut oil traders on alert following pledges by OPEC+ heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Russia to cut their supply of oil into the market.

NHS app partner Babylon Health fighting for survival

The technology company behind the NHS’s GP at Hand app is fighting for its survival as it scrambles for cash to keep its UK arm going until it can find a buyer.

In a stark warning on Monday, Babylon Health said it was “in discussions with potential strategic partners to secure additional funding,” but “cannot provide assurance that it will be able to secure sufficient liquidity to fund the operations of the group’s businesses”.

This could force it to file for bankruptcy protection in the US and administration in the UK.

The online healthcare firm’s future is in jeopardy after a deal to merge with MindMaze, a Swiss healthcare tech firm, fell through.Once regarded as one of Britain’s most promising start-ups, the company wants to shut its core US division and offload its UK business, which includes its NHS-funded GP at Hand service. It provides virtual appointments and a symptom checker and serves more than 100,000 NHS patients.

Babylon was touted as the future of the NHS by former health secretary Matt Hancock, and won a number of NHS contracts. Some of Babylon’s shareholders made donations to him and the Conservative party, the Guardian revealed in 2021.

However, last August two NHS trusts in Wolverhampton and Birmingham that rolled out its digital service said they were ending their multi-year contract with Babylon, just two years after signing it. The firm’s share price plummeted and it was delisted from the New York stock exchange last month.

The group was founded in 2013 by Ali Parsa, a British-Iranian healthcare entrepreneur and former investment banker, who has run it as chief executive since then. It listed on the US stock market for $4.2bn in October 2021, turning Parsa into a billionaire. But the float, via a special purpose acquisition company, failed to raise as much funding as expected and Parsa has described Babylon’s performance since then as an “unbelievable, unmitigated disaster”.

Babylon said:

“To the extent that Babylon is unable to secure additional financing and complete a third arty sale of a particular business, the applicable entities of the group will file for bankruptcy protection or implement other alternatives for an orderly wind down and liquidation or dissolution, which may include commencing chapter 7 proceedings under the US bankruptcy code and/or a UK administration for the applicable entities of the Group in the near term.”

Full story: Italy waters down windfall tax on banks after market rout

Italy has watered down its new windfall tax on banks and set a cap on payouts, after the surprise levy spooked investors and sent shares in local lenders plunging.

The country’s rightwing government, led by the prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, appeared to backtrack on terms of the windfall tax, less than 24 hours after it was announced. The government said on Tuesday night that lenders would pay no more than 0.1% of their assets – a fifth of the level the levy was previously predicted to reach.

Analysts at Jefferies estimated that the cap would limit collective payouts from some of Italy’s largest listed banks – which account for about 50% of Italian deposits – to about €2.5bn (£2.2bn), compared with earlier estimates of up to €4.9bn.

The change comes a day after Meloni’s government announced the windfall tax, in an effort to target banks accused of reaping billions in extra profit from rising interest rates.

More here:

Fresh strikes are set to affect Gatwick airport later this month, as workers take eight days of industrial action, including the August Bank Holiday weekend, in pay disputes, the Unite union has announced.

Unite says the strikes will involve over 230 workers at Red Handling, a ground handling company and Wilson James, which operates the passenger assistance contract at the airport.

Both companies have failed to make offers that meet the workers’ expectations, the union says.

Unite says:

  • Red Handling workers are scheduled to begin their first tranche of strike action at 00:01 on Friday 18 August with strikes concluding at 23:59 on Monday 21 August. The second strike will begin on 00:01 on Friday 25 August, ending at 23:59 on Monday 28 August.

  • The strikes at Wilson James will begin at 00:01 on Friday 18 August ending at 23:59 on Sunday 20 August and then from 00:01 on Tuesday 22 August ending on Thursday 24 August at 23:59.

Red Handling is responsible for ground handling for Norse Atlantic, Norwegian, Delta, TAP Air Portugal and Saudi. During the first four-day strike action at Red Handling, Unite believes that 216 flights could be disrupted or delayed, affecting approximately 45,000 passengers.

Previous strikes at Gatwick, involving staff at other companies, were cancelled after workers received higher pay offers.

Economists are hopeful that China’s drop into deflation last month could lead to lower price pressures in the West.

Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered Plc, has said deflation in China “should help inflation in the US and Europe to moderate.”

But, Tom Hopkins, portfolio manager at BRI Wealth Management, argues that European companies should be concerned by ths move:

“China moving into a deflationary state bucks the trend of most western nations, which have been struggling with the opposite problem of high inflation. The move into deflation for the world’s second largest economy is a clear sign of weakening, something that’ll spark concern for EU companies and economies of which China is one of the most important trading partners.

“In addition, a lack of clarity on Beijing’s planned stimulus measures will mean a mixed appetite for European markets. Chinese policymakers have a difficult balancing act with calls for stimulus whilst battling a slowdown in its property sector and a weakening in trade and consumer confidence.”

The Italian government’s partial u-turn on plans for a new banking windfall tax will probably allow lenders to keep their promises on shareholder returns, analysts believe.

That’s why Italian banking shares are recovering some of yesterday’s losses today (see earlier post).

Bloomberg reports:

The finance ministry said late Tuesday that the levy won’t exceed 0.1% of a firm’s assets, after Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini’s announcement of a 40% tax on lenders’ extra profits the day before wiped out $10bn from Italian banks’ market value.

The clarification meant it was now “more sustainable” for lenders to fulfill their guidance on an increase in distributions for 2023, Equita Sim Spa analyst Andrea Lisi said.

“Given the contained magnitude of the tax and the high starting CET1 ratio, we believe the measure would not impair banks’ capital return policies,” Andrea Filtri, an analyst at Mediobanca SpA, said in a note on Wednesday.

Stephen Millard, deputy director for macroeconomic modelling and forecasting at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr), has called for the UK government to invest more in public infrastructure.

Following this morning’s forecast that the UK economy won’t reach its pre-Covid-19 levels until summer 2024, Millard told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that targeted investment was the long-term answer.

Millard explained:

“I think the Government needs to think beyond the next few years.

“By investing in public infrastructure, in education, in healthcare, in the green transition, the result will eventually be higher growth.

“That’s the thing about public investment, but it takes a while – at least a couple of parliaments.

“We’re not going to see it quickly but we are going to see it in the end.”

He also cautioned that tax cuts can only supercharge growth “in the short run” and “create their own problems”.

Back in Milan, bank shares are holding their earlier gains after Italy’s government dialled back its windfall tax.

Intesa Sanpaolo areup 3.1%, Banco BPM have gained 3.6% and UniCredit is up 4.2%, helping keep the broader FTSE MIB index up by 1.9%.

Ankit Gheedia, head of equity and derivatives strategy at BNP Paribas, says:

“We’ve had some watering down of the policy from yesterday and what it looks like is the impact should be less severe, but still a tax, nonetheless.”

Oil at highest levels in months

The oil price is rallying this morning, with Brent crude up 0.6% at its highest level since April.

US crude has gained 0.75%, to its highest level in 9 months.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo, says the combination of robust demand and OPEC+ production cuts are keeping the oil market tight.

Hansen adds:

Continued risks to Russian crude shipments from tensions in the Black Sea remain after Ukraine’s Zelensky said that it would choose its targets if Russia blocked Ukraine’s ports.

Updated

China in deflation: What the experts say

China’s drop into deflation last month, with an inflation reading of -0.3% in July, has alarmed economists.

The year-on-year drop in consumer prices last month indicates that the world’s second largest economy is at risk of slipping into a prolonged period of deflation, analysts say. Although, the fall was smaller than the 0.4% which economists expected.

Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, pointed out that prices at the factory gate (PPI inflation) also fell:

The latest Chinese inflationary data did little to inspire confidence that an economic turnaround is forthcoming. The lack of both confidence and willingness to spend by the Chinese consumer was born out by the CPI and PPI numbers today which were again in negative territory.

Here’s Steve Clayton, head of equity funds at Hargreaves Lansdown:

“Chinese economics dominates the headlines for the second day in a row.

Yesterday it was news that trade volumes were falling, suggesting that China was slowing sharply. Today comes news that both producer and consumer prices are now falling in the world’s second largest economy. Consumer prices fell by 0.3% in July, while producer prices dropped by 4.4%.

This is very different to inflation falling, which is what we are seeing back in the UK. The UK economy is still seeing prices rising strongly, just not quite as fast as they were. China is now witnessing the actual cost of goods both in stores and at the factory gate falling. It is indicative of a significant slowdown in the Chinese economy, which is beset by high levels of indebtedness.

Eswar Prasad, a China finance expert at Cornell University, said (via the FT):

“The Chinese economy is now at serious risk of sliding into a deflationary episode that could spark a self-reinforcing downward spiral in growth and private sector confidence.

“The government needs to act quickly and decisively to put a floor on growth and limit deflation before matters get out of hand.”

Europe’s Stoxx 600 shares indes has risen to its highest level in a week, lifted by Italian banks after Rome said it would cap its new windfall tax.

Shares have risen in London in morning trading, with the FTSE 100 index gaining 56 points or 0.75% to 7583 points.

Victoria Scholar, head of investment at interactive investor, has the details:

“European markets are trading higher with the FTSE MIB in Italy outperforming. Italian banks are clawing back some of yesterday’s declines after the government watered down its windfall tax plans. Unicredit, Intesa Sanpaolo and BPER Banca are all trading higher by over 2%.

In the UK, Coca-Cola HBC is near the top of the FTSE 100 after raising its revenue guidance while Flutter is towards the bottom after its half-year results. The owner of Paddy Power and Betfair is planning to list in the US possibly later this year or early next year.

A leading think tank, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research has warned there is a 60% chance of a UK recession at the end of 2024. It pointed to Brexit, the pandemic, and the war in Ukraine as factors contributing to five years of ‘lost’ economic growth with ‘elevated housing, energy and food costs’ taking their toll. Second quarter UK GDP figures are due on Friday at 7am.

UK mortgage rates have dipped a little this morning, but remain sharply above their levels a few months ago.

Data provider Moneyfacts says:

  • The average 2-year fixed residential mortgage rate today is 6.83%. This is down from an average rate of 6.84% on the previous working day.

  • The average 5-year fixed residential mortgage rate today is 6.34%. This is down from an average rate of 6.35% on the previous working day.

British housebuilder Bellway said it would build fewer homes in the current fiscal year, as rising interest rates cool demand.

In its latest financial results, Bellway says the recent increase in mortgage rates through June and July 2023 has resulted in a weaker trading environment, adding:

In the current financial year, given the level of the order book and prevailing low reservation rates, legal completions are expected to decrease materially.

Bellway also reported that revenues dipped to £3.4bn in the year to the end of June, down from £3.5bn a year earlier. Its profit margin narrowed, due to rising build costs and overhead inflation.

Bellway reports that customer demand during the year was affected by the volatility in mortgage interest rates.

Jason Honeyman, Bellway’s chief executive, told shareholders:

The backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty and cost of living pressures affected consumer demand during the year and, given affordability remains constrained by higher mortgage interest rates, underlying trading conditions are likely to remain challenging in the near term.

Faced with this slowdown, Bellway is also reducing headcount across the company.

Updated

WeWork warns of ‘substantial doubt’ about future as membership falls

Shares in office space-sharing company WeWork have tumbled by almost a quarter in overnight trading after it warned there are “substantial” doubts about its ability to keep running.

WeWork, once one of the rising stars of the pandemic, said that its ability to continue as a going concern depended on renegotiating down its rent and tenancy costs, and boosting revenue through new sales and lowering the number of customers leaving. It also needs to limit its expenses, and raise new capital.

WeWork’s shares fell 23.7% in after-hours trading in New York.

The company was once valued at $47bn by tech investor Softbank, before its first attempt to float on the stock market failed, in 2019.

It later went public in 2021, having burned through considerable amounts of cash as it signed new leases and rolled out its office space subleasing offering in more cities.

David Tolley, interim chief executive officer, blamed a “difficult operating environment” for WeWork’s woes, explaining:

“Excess supply in commercial real estate, increasing competition in flexible space and macroeconomic volatility drove higher member churn and softer demand than we anticipated, resulting in a slight decline in memberships.”

Updated

TUI returns to summer profit as demand surges

Elsewhere this morning, package holiday operator Tui has bounced back to profit for the first time since the pandemic.

Tui reported it had 12.5m bookings for this summer, of which 4.3m bookings have been added since it last updated investors in early May. That means that it has sold 86% of its summer offering, matching levels seen last year and in 2019, before the pandemic.

Tui also revealed it expects to take a €25m hit from this year’s wildfires in Rhodes, due to the price of cancelling holidays, compensating customers and covering their welfare expenses, as well as flying them home.

CEO Sebastian Ebel says:

“Summer 23 is going very well, demand for holidays remains high. It will be a good full year for TUI with a significant year-on-year improvement in earnings. We are driving the transformation forward and investing in additional revenue and earnings areas to continue to grow profitably in the future.”

Italian bank shares rally

The Italian stock market has jumped at the start of trading as traders welcome the overnight decision to limit the impact of its planned windfall tax on banks.

Italy’s banking index has risen by 2.4% in early trading.

Italy’s largest bank, Intesa Sanpaolo, are up 3% at the open, having fallen over 8% yesterday after the windfall tax was announced.

Unicredit, who fell almost 6% on Tuesday, are up around 2.5%.

Italy’s main stock index, the FTSE MIB, is 1.2% higher.

RBC Capital Markets explain:

In Italy, the govt is backpedalling from yesterday’s initial announcement on a windfall bank tax, saying it would be capped at 0.1% of a bank’s assets.

Updated

NIESR’s economic forecasts suggest Rishi Sunak will fight the next election against a backdrop of an economy suffering from five years of lost growth and a widening of the gap between the prosperous and less well off parts of Britain.

Our economics editor Larry Elliott explains:

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said it would take until the third quarter of 2024 for UK output to return to its pre-pandemic peak and that there was a 60% risk of the government going to the polls during a recession.

In its quarterly update on the state of the economy, the NIESR said the poorest tenth of the population had been especially hard hit by Britain’s cost of living crisis and would need an income boost of £4,000 a year to have the same living standards they enjoyed in the year before Covid-19 arrived.

Italy backtracks on banking windfall tax

Italy’s government have partly backtracked on their plans for a banking windfall tax, after shares in the country’s lenders tumbled yesterday.

As we covered on Tuesday, Italy’s cabinet surprisingly decided to impose a 40% windfall tax on its banks, aiming to cream off some of the billions of euros in extra profits they have received from rising interest rates.

But overnight, Italy’s finance ministry has announced the levy could not exceed 0.1% of each bank’s total assets “in order to safeguard lenders’ financial stability”.

That is a rather lower level than analysts had expected, as Rome limits the plan as it tries to ensure financial stability.

Jim Reid, strategist at Deutsche Bank explains:

In an update published overnight, our European bank analysts estimate that such a cap would reduce the overall size of the tax by over 40%, though it would still take more than 10% from 2023 profits.

One banking source in Milan has told the Financial Times that the limit would make the levy “much more manageable” and would raise an estimated €1.8bn, in contrast with estimates of more than €4.5bn issued by analysts at Jefferies and Equita earlier on Tuesday.

Updated

Introduction: UK facing five-year stretch of lost economic growth

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

The UK is on course to experience five years of lost growth, as the economy suffers from a bout of 1970s-style “British diseases”.

That’s the verdict of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, the economic thinktank, in its latest, rather grim, quarterly outlook of the UK economy.

NIESR fears that the UK economy, which is 0.5% below its pre-pandemic level, will not rise over that level until the third quarter of 2024. That would be the longest stretch of “lost economic growth” since the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis.

A chart showing UK growth forecasts
A chart showing UK growth forecasts Photograph: NIESR

Professor Stephen Millard, deputy director for macroeconomic modelling and forecasting, says NIESR only expects “stuttering growth” over the next two years:

“The triple supply shocks of Brexit, Covid and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, together with the monetary tightening that has been necessary to bring inflation down, have badly affected the UK economy.

NIESR expects that inflation will remain continually above target until 2025.

It says the UK economy is being buffered by inflation, political churn, a global economic slowdown, the shock of high oil shocks and industrial action – a cocktail of problems reminiscent of the 1970s.

And with productivity stagnant, and growth so low, the poorest will suffer the most, with NIESR predicting that the financial vulnerability of households in the bottom half of the income distribution will rise.

Real wages in many UK regions are expecting to be below pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024, NIESR says, adding:

More specifically, the East of England, South-East and West Midlands will be below pre-Covid levels, with real wages in the West Midlands projected to be around 5 per cent lower than in 2019.

Also coming up today

China’s economy has fallen into deflation for the first time since early 2021. Consumer prices were 0.3% lower in July than a year ago, highlighting Beijing’s struggle to lift consumption and boost growth.

Michael Hewson of CMC Markets explains:

Chinese deflation has been the proverbial elephant in the room when it comes to recent tightening measures from the Federal Reserve, the ECB, and Bank of England.

How many more rate hikes can we expect in the coming months when there is a clear deflationary impulse coming from Asia, and where is the tipping point when it comes to the risk of overtightening.

The agenda

  • 11am BST: Ireland’s industrial production report for June

  • Noon: US weekly mortgage applications

Updated

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