Much-changed and with just one win in their last eight games, Wales are about to put to the test the old adage that Rome is always a good idea.
Defeat against Italy on Saturday would leave Warren Gatland’s side staring at a Six Nations wooden spoon.
The difference between finishing fifth in the table and rock bottom is worth in the region of £500,000, so there is a financial incentive for Gatland’s players to shake off the mediocrity of their opening three games.
But the coach has clearly been using the championship to assess players and there’s more of the same here, with six changes from the team that lost to England.
Here’s how the two teams compare.
Tomasso Allan 5 v 7 Liam Williams
Allan is a playmaker who makes good decisions and can create. What he isn’t is a specialist full-back. He is a regular fly-half and he’s taking over from the injured poster boy of Italian rugby, Ange Capuozzo. It’s a tough ask and it will be up to Wales’ half-backs to test his positional play and appetite for taking the high ball under pressure. Simply booting the ball down his throat, with a limited chase, isn’t what’s required from a Welsh perspective. When in Rome, Wales must try to do what England did to Leigh Halfpenny last time out.
Williams needs to watch his discipline after the yellow cards against Ireland and Scotland which doubtless were a factor behind his being left out for the game with England.
But on his game he’s a warrior full-back who can run, catch and compete with the best out there.
Edoardo Padovani 6 v 6 Josh Adams
Padovani has a lot of experience and is reliable under the high ball. He also happens to be the man whose late try helped secure Italy their historic victory over Wales in Cardiff a year ago. He didn’t always look safe in defence against Ireland last time out, though.
Adams has been some way short of his best of late, struggling to get on the ball and influence matters in an attacking sense. He was sick at half-time against England, which goes some way to explaining his low-key performance, but Wales need more from him, a point Gatland made at the team announcement.
Juan Ignacio Brex 7 v 6 Mason Grady
Brex is having a useful tournament, attacking well against both England and France and defending solidly against Ireland. If Wales give him room, he will exploit it.
Grady can be pleased with his debut performance against England. It was a big game and there were a lot of eyes on him, but he ran well at times and didn’t miss anything in defence. Still learning at this level, though.
Tomasso Menoncello 7 v 6 Joe Hawkins
“I don’t say this too lightly, but he is in the top five young players I’ve ever coached. So freakish, it’s hard to describe. His softer skills and passing game will come but he runs hard and straight and defends really well.”
So said ex-England assistant Paul Gustard of Menoncello during the coach’s stint with Benetton.
The early rounds of this Six Nations show why the 20-year-old is rated. He can move up the gears quickly, makes metres in contact and is capable of spreading play when the occasion demands.
Hawkins has been attracting a lot of positive headlines and is one to watch because of the variety to his game. He is big and powerful enough to make ground in contact but he also has soft hands and a nice kicking game. If he’s missed too many tackles in this tournament — only Finn Russell has missed more than the nine attackers who’ve passed Hawkins — there were signs of improvement against England and for a young player, he’s been showing a lot of maturity.
Pierre Bruno 7 v 6 Rio Dyer
While Bruno failed to halt Hugo Keenan early on against Ireland and generally looked a missed tackle waiting to happen, he proved an electric presence in attack as he made 176 metres from his 15 carries and beat eight defenders.
Wales will give him space at their peril.
Dyer is himself a dangerous attacker with the odd crease in his defensive game. The challenge for the visitors will be to put him clear in space. Do that and he’ll cause problems.
Paolo Garbisi 8 v 6 Owen Williams
Italian football has a history of great number 10s, with Andrea Pirlo, Roberto Baggio, Alessandro Del Piero, Gianni Rivera, Sandro Mazzola, Giancarlo Antognoni, Francesco Totti and Gianfranco Zola among them. The rugby side hasn’t been so lucky in the years since Diego Dominguez.
But Garbisi is a talent. Not only does he play flat to the line, he can make breaks himself and has a strong kicking game as well as the ability to the pass which repeatedly opened up Ireland last time out.
Williams wasn’t at his best in his first Test start at fly-half, against England last time out, but he had been performing soundly for the Ospreys before the Six Nations .and is a player who can run play. He has a bit to prove in the 10 shirt at this level, though.
Stephen Varney 6 v 7 Rhys Webb
Carmarthen-born Varney had a fine game against Ireland with his ability to maintain tempo, but in the opening two matches he wasn’t always at his best. While he has flicked out more passes than any other scrum-half in this tournament and is unfailingly busy, he is still settling in Test rugby and Webb will want to stamp his authority.
It is a big game for the Wales scrum-half. He has done wonderfully well to reclaim a starting spot after spending so long out in the cold under Wayne Pivac. He is a leader and on a good day he can provide a spark. Wales will hope Saturday proves a good day.
Danilo Fishcetti 7 v 7 Wyn Jones
Fishchetti had a strong game against Wales last season and is seen as a thoroughly modern prop, one who doesn’t stop working around the field. Against France in round one, he was outstanding. If he does have a weakness, it may be at scrum-time, where he has given away four penalties this term.
Jones is capable of big displays himself, but we haven’t seen one for him for some time. Stadio Olimpico would be a decent place to remind us of his quality. When he‘s firing on all cylinders, he is capable of testing the Italian setpiece. Indeed, when he’s really at it, he can hold his own against some of the best around.
Giacomo Nicotera 7 v 7 Ken Owens
Nictoera is having a fine campaign, accurate with his darts and a force around the field. A head injury interrupted his effort against Ireland, but he is a grafter who is in credit in this Six Nations.
There has been the odd problem at lineout time for Owens, but in other areas the captain has battled hard. He is physical and leads from the front. Wales need his throwing to be on the money in Rome, though.
Simoni Ferrari 6 v 6 Tomas Francis
Ferrari is a prop with a winger’s name. Like Fishchetti he showed up well against France, while he was steady against Ireland.
Francis does what it says on the tin. He’ll hold up his own at the set-piece and put in a dozen or so tackles in 55 minutes, which is quietly impressive for a prop.
But how Wales could do with the Osprey applying pressure on Fischetti at scrum-time.
Niccolo Cannone 6 v 6 Adam Beard
Two steady operators here, both good in defence, who’ll both want to make more of an impact with ball in hand.
The older of the Cannone brothers played a full part in encouraging team displays against France and Ireland but wasn’t so prominent against England.
Beard could argue that maybe he should receive credit for what he can do as much as what he can’t do. He is never going to be a Welsh Leone Nakarawa, with sweeping carries and an offload at every turn, but he is a handful at mauls, defends well, is a good lineout operator.
But, above all on Saturday, what he needs to do is impose himself.
Federico Ruzza 7 v 6 Dafydd Jenkins
Benetton man Ruzza has been Italy’s go-to man at the lineout in this championship, securing more ball on his own throw than any other player in the tournament. For good measure he’s also pinched a couple of opposition deliveries.
Against England he also carried aggressively and he didn’t go missing against Ireland — far from it.
Jenkins will not be fazed because that isn’t his way. In fact, he’ll relish the challenge. The youngster is still raw and very much a work in progress, but he’ll compete and won’t let himself be pushed around.
Sebastian Negri 8 v 8 Jac Morgan
No forward in this championship has made more carries than Negri, while the tally of metres he has made is none too shabby, either. He relishes having the ball in hand and will look to test Wales’ appetite for tackling.
The visitors need Morgan to be in the kind of form he showed against Australia last November. Then, he played the house down with his carrying and tackling and ability to take chances. He is an openside masquerading as a blindside, of course, but he’ll pose a jackalling threat and is a player capable of seriously influencing games.
Michele Lamaro 7 v 8 Justin Tipuric
The Italians look to their captain Lamaro to lead and charge with his prominent work with ball in hand, whether passing or making metres, and he suits the exuberant style of the team under Kieran Crowley. He has missed tackles in this tournament, though, and is yet to achieve a turnover.
Some have been selling shares in Tipuric but he is hugely respected among his peers and has not missed a single hit in 31 attempts in this Six Nations. Only England’s Lewis Ludlam has put in more dominant defensive interventions, while the Welshman can create and is an ultra-reliable lineout option.
Lorenzo Cannone 8 v 9 Taulupe Faletau
Cannone is another Italian back rower who enjoys taking the ball forward — in this Six Nations, only Caelan Doris and Azzurri team-mate Sebastian Negri have made more metres than the younger of the Cannone brothers.
But Faletau is capable of taking his game to extraordinary heights and ticks pretty much every box there is to tick for a No. 8, including the one for vast experience with the Wales man having played in 98 Tests for his country against his rival’s seven for Italy.
REPLACEMENTS
Italy 6 v 7 Wales
Italy’s replacements did well enough against Ireland, with back-rower Giovanni Pettinelli standing out, and Luca Morisi can be a handful in midfield, but in the first two rounds of this championship the subs struggled to maintain the levels of the starters.
In Tomos Williams, George North and Louis Rees-Zammit, Wales have three dangerous backline replacements capable of causing real problems for a tiring defence, while Dillon Lewis is a force around the field and Tommy Reffell can influence any game at the breakdown.
TOTALS
Italy 108, Wales 108
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