Just when you thought you'd seen the last of COVID, it's back. And it may never go away again.
On the latest figures, there are more than 70 new cases per day in the ACT. On the latest figures, one person died in the week to Friday and 488 new cases emerged through lab testing or because the infected person went to hospital or a doctor.
But these are only the ones serious enough for the authorities to know about.
"It has never gone away, and likely it will never go away," ACT government epidemiologist Tim Sloan-Gardner said.
"It's more likely that it will become a seasonal disease like influenzae."
There is no way of knowing the exact number of infections because people with minor attacks of it may well just stay home (or not even do that). Others, without any symptoms, may not even know they've got it.
The cases cited in the regular government statistics are, therefore, those serious enough to get into the health system because sufferers get in touch with a doctor or go to hospital.
Accurate figures are not available from tests on "waste water" at sewage treatment plants. That form of testing was halted some time ago. It was useful to tell the health authorities whether there was any COVID at all in an area but not a very good way of telling them how much there was or how severe the cases were.
Severity is what the experts in the ACT government are now focused on. It's where the danger still lies.
"The important thing for us now is not day-to-day numbers. We now look at trends but more and more we look at severity markers," Mr Sloan-Gardner said.
By "severity markers", he means the numbers of deaths or admissions to intensive care units or of those taken to hospital.
"Severity" matters, for obvious reasons. "For some people, it can still be a death sentence. There are still vulnerable members of society," Mr Sloan-Gardner said.
The good news recently is while the number of cases has gone up, there are no indications of a rise in the number of really severe cases.
One of the reasons the recent bout hasn't been devastating is it still involved the Omicron variant, albeit with a few minor changes. And the Omicron variant was not the nastiest version of the coronavirus in the pandemic.
Epidemiologist Adrian Esterman of the University of South Australia said the recent rise in the number of cases probably stemmed from two factors.
Firstly, there was "waning immunity due to people not keeping up-to-date with their vaccinations. For example, only 23 per cent of Australians aged 65 and over have had an updated vaccination in the last six months."
On top of that, there were "some new highly transmissible variants taking over in Australia, in particular HK.2 and HV.1. These are descendants of EG.5.1 (Eris) which was dominating".
"As for disease severity, this has not really changed much over the last couple of years. All of these different versions of Omicron mainly infect the upper respiratory passages, tending to cause a milder disease," Professor Esterman said.
On top of that, vaccines are improving. Drug companies adapt the vaccines to try to stay a jump ahead of the virus as it morphs deviously (as they do with flu, predicting next season's variant and developing the vaccine likely to whack it).
"Two new vaccines have been approved by the Therapeutic Goods Administration, one form Moderna and one from Pfizer," Prof Esterman said.
His recommendation to high-risk people due for another jab but who may not be able to get the newest versions was to accept the current offering. "It is not as effective as the new vaccine, but will still give some protection," he said.
He encouraged people at high risk like the elderly or those with diseases affecting the immune system to not drop their guard.
"People at risk should now consider masking up again when going out to places like supermarkets. For others, the best advice is to stay home if you are feeling unwell, and if you have to go out, wear a P2/N95 face mask to protect others," he said.
Mr Sloan-Gardner said: "Stay home if you're sick." Keep masks and testing equipment handy.
He recommended "COVID-smart" behaviour, such as:
- Stay up-to-date with your vaccinations;
- Speak to your healthcare team before you become unwell;
- Wash and sanitise hands regularly;
- Physically distance;
- Wear a mask in public indoor places; and
- Test for COVID-19 if you have symptoms.
