By Christopher Guérin, Chief Executive Officer of Nexans
Despite living in the 21st century, the world’s electrical grid is far from modern. The upgrade of the current electrical infrastructure coupled with increasing demand for electricity will create the largest energy crisis since the 1970s. Additionally, population growth and the need for more sustainable energy sources will increase the global demand for electricity. According to the UN, the world population is expected to swell 20% by 2030 and areas in Africa and Asia could see an increase of 80% in the population. That population growth will increase the global energy demand by 20% in the same time frame (Nexans: Electrify the Future, 2020 Integrated Report).
We are only at the beginning of a major energy crisis. It will be difficult to keep up with the increase in demand without a serious overhaul of the electrical grids of the US and the European Union. In the US, over half of the energy infrastructure is over 50 years old, while in the EU, over one-third of the energy infrastructure is over 40 years old. We are facing a new electrical revolution, twice as big as boom after the second world war. As they stand now, built to fulfil the needs in the early 60’s, the current grids will not be able to sustain the increased demand generated. This problem lies in the reality that the US and the EU simply have not invested, privately or publicly, in their electrical grids to keep up with the increasing demand over the past half century. As a result, the demand for electric cables that deliver that electricity is exploding around the world for all uses such as renovating infrastructure, connecting offshore wind turbines to continents, and interconnecting countries to exchange electricity. Cable production capacities are not constrained by final demand but through access to raw materials.
We expect a massive shortage of copper and aluminum and an unprecedented rise in prices as these metals are the main conductors of electricity. Without copper and aluminum cables to deliver electricity, energy will never travel from the generation source to homes. Upgrading the existing infrastructure, along with building new infrastructure will account for nearly 70% of cable manufacturing over the next 10 years, and the cabling industry, as a result, will grow by 2-3% per year during the same time frame. The world is also expected to see over 200GW of offshore wind infrastructure by 2030, leading to 10,000km of submarine cabling. This will lead to a discrepancy between the supply and demand of raw copper and aluminum in the near term, substantially increasing the price and prolonging the time to completion of many of these infrastructure upgrades.
The world’s copper consumption has climbed to 20 million tons today from 9 million in 1995. The development of more electric products such as electric vehicles coupled with the global appeal for a more sustainable energy mix to replace fossil fuels, will quickly shift demand to 35 million tons in 2030, while the maximum extraction capacity is currently 22 million tons. The existing copper mines simply cannot sustain the demand. Aluminum, which is also used in of cable production, does not occur in nature and requires extraction from aluminum oxide. 80% of the world’s aluminum oxide comes from Russia, China, and Australia. With the call for energy independence being heard around the world, it is crucial that there is a close examination of what can be done to mitigate these problems of supply. The European and American authorities have made it clear that they want cut trade ties with Russia. The road to energy independence and a more sustainable supply chain will not be easy, but there are solutions available to help solve the crisis.
This crisis is lasting because it is structural. The establishment of new copper mines currently takes eight years from the beginning of the permitting process to the go-live of the mine, and the backlog for copper dependent products will only grow, especially if aluminum becomes more difficult to obtain. In the near term, there will be a rise in prices. In the long term, there will be shortages that could prompt rationing and potential geopolitical challenges.
The only solution to this crisis is through recycling. New copper cables can be created with 85% raw copper and 15% recycled copper. While recycling does not solve the problem overnight, it will help stem the tide and keep prices reasonable while new copper mines are established to make up for the increased demand. There are 45 million tons of untapped copper just waiting to be extracted and recycling copper may buy the time necessary to ensure there is no shortage.
To properly recycle, the US and the EU must lead the way in capturing the old copper and aluminum cables once the infrastructure transformation begins. The energy transition has already begun, and companies are investing heavily in infrastructure upgrades. The time to begin recycling this copper is now. The world is sitting on an urban mine that can help make up the difference for years to come.
