For the third consecutive season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in the playoffs But this is the first year of that three-year stretch in which it didn’t feel completely… deserved. It doesn’t feel the same at 8-9. Even with Tom Brady leading the league in completions and attempts, their run game is sitting dead last in the NFL. So, their offense hasn’t really clicked. Injuries are a big part of that, too. Especially on their offensive line. Because of this, they have been unable to establish that run game, which in turn has affected their passing game, more specifically the play action the pass.
Their offense has been flat.
But even though the Buccaneers only have eight wins, they are still in the playoffs, and that’s all Brady ever needs — a game, a quarter, a drive, or just one chance.
Brady has turned it up over these last few games and their offense made a slight improvement despite losing to the Atlanta Falcons week 18.
Let’s look into the Buccaneers’ offense and see what they have to do to make it past the Dallas Cowboys in their wild-card matchup.
Season woes.
The Buccaneers’ offense just is not explosive, to say the least. Their run game with Leonard Fournette is not even close to what it was last year. Fournette sits 37th in rushes of 10+ or more, with 14. The Bucs are also dead last in rushing yards per game, with 76.9 yards, per ESPN.
Their passing offense is 25th in plays of 20+ yards or more. On third and long they are 30th in offensive EPA, with -25.83. Not to mention they have the third most drops in the league with 29, per NBC Sports
Offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich recently said this when asked about his offense: “I think you guys overexaggerate, because we look different. The numbers say we’re not that far off … For some reason, everybody wants to throw dirt on the Bucs.”
Leftwich is technically correct.
Brady has the third most passing yards in the league. They are getting the yards, but they aren’t scoring!
So, when Leftwich says that the offensive looks different, he’s absolutely right. This is Brady’s first losing season at any level of football where he has been the primary starting quarterback.
The Buccaneers are relying on the short passing game right now as they have been dinking-and-dunking up field. It’s only working in short bursts, not enough to help them in the red zone.
Moving the ball.
The Buccaneers’ offense is only scoring on 52% of their chances in the red zone as opposed to 65.7% in 2021. Brady just needs to generate yards in different ways. He has a 47.2% completion percentage when pressured, but when giving it to the running back in those pressured situations, he has a 91.7% completion percentage.
They just aren’t doing that enough. In week 17 against the Carolina Panthers, it was third-and-7, and instead of using the running back in a chip block, they keep him blocking, which was a design destined to fail.
Another way they have been avoiding pressure has been with screens against off-coverage defenders. Brady has thrown the second-most screen passes in the league with 90, only behind Aaron Rodgers, who had 93.
The Buccaneers’ receivers don’t especially need extra blockers out wide either. They are more than capable beating their defenders in front of them. With one blocker, like what they did to go up by two scores against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 15…
…or just getting it out quick and letting their guys beat their matchups one-on-one. They did this against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 16.
It’s important to note that the Buccaneers have the third-most yards after the catch in the league, with 2,419.
The Bucs are better off continuing this theme and continuing to get it out in the short passing game, letting their wideouts do the rest of the work.
The wild-card matchup.
Brady has been successful when getting the ball out quickly, but if the offense isn’t drawing up higher-percentage passing plays on early downs, they end up with third-and-longs. And that is an issue, as mentioned above — they are producing on third downs with the worst EPA in the league on third down with 10+ yards to go.
Another issue is that Brady is only facing pressure on 32% of those dropbacks, which is 27th (min. 25 attempts). If Brady isn’t being pressured and he has the time, why isn’t the EPA higher? The play calling isn’t beneficial to the situations.
The Buccaneers have a tough game ahead against the Dallas Cowboys in the Wildcard matchup. If they want to end up with a similar result as week one, which is walking away with a win, time of possession will be critical. The Cowboys only forced two three-and-outs in their first matchup, since then, their defense is the 9th best in preventing third down conversions, per teamrankings.com.
Cowboys cornerback Travon Diggs has two relative weaknesses — defending the short passing game and the double move. According to Sports Info Solutions, Diggs has allowed the most touchdowns with five, and the second-most yards in the league versus passes of 15 air yards or less with 393.
Brady will have to get the ball out quick and early, and once he does, Dallas’ defense should step up opening the field over the top. Brady doesn’t have much to prove at this point, but if he can singlehandedly take down the Cowboys defense this weekend with the passing game, he will just prove even further that he is the best quarterback of all time.
