It’s a simple matter of supply and demand: Sweltering summer days leave people craving a condensation-slicked bottle of soda or a tongue-dying multicolored popsicle. But today’s consumers are defying a fundamental rule of economics when it comes to staple summer treats: They’re not buying as much ice cream because it’s just too hot.
“If the weather is really hot, it’s not really good for business. It’s weird,” said Carlos Vazquez, a Mister Softee truck franchise owner for over a decade, in a CNN interview. “People don’t want to have to walk too much. It’s creamy and melts and you get dirty and you ask for the extra napkins.”
Mister Softee, known for slinging sundaes and popsicles from its jingle-singing trucks across the U.S., has struggled in recent years. The ice cream purveyor faces competition from boutique shops and pressure from inflation to continue to raise prices, as well as contending with changing times in which American kids no longer play in the street like they once did. But steamy summers—including 2024’s hottest on record—have exacerbated its troubles, discouraging would-be customers from baking while standing in line for a cone or popsicle and leaving trucks more susceptible to breakdowns which are expensive to fix.
Even global confections brands are feeling the heat. Unilever, the parent company behind Magnum and Ben & Jerry’s, noted last October that a hot and rainy summer in the U.K. contributed to the company’s 10% drop in ice cream sales volume.
"There's a sweet spot for temperature," Unilever CFO Graeme Pitkethly, said at the time. "When it gets too hot, people move away from ice cream and buy a cold drink instead.”
Beer companies would disagree with Pitkethly, as they’re also reeling from severe weather. Heineken CEO Dolf van den Brink partially attributed the brand’s lower-than-expected sales growth to a soggy spring and early summer season. Soccer games, which are usually the source of sales boosts, have been rained out. A thunderstorm in the last round-of-16 game at the 2024 Euro hosted in Germany delayed gameplay, drenched fans, and shut down fan zones across the country.
Hot temps, cooling sales
Sweltering temperatures are the bane of more than just sweets and drink companies. Retailers across industries are increasingly blaming bad weather for sales woes. Investors' Chronicle found in a January analysis that at least 23 companies mentioned the climate in earnings over the course of the quarter ending at the beginning of the year.
In addition to food and drink companies, clothing brands like Superdry and Dr Martens said in earnings reports that hot temperatures moderated sales as consumers didn’t start bundling up until later in the year.
Beyond turning off consumers, volatile weather has threatened the production of commodities essential for some consumer goods. Parts of South America have been pounded by flooding and extreme heat, making crops more susceptible to disease and disrupting growing cycles. As a result, orange and coffee bean production has stumbled. Cocoa prices have reached record highs, forcing chocolate companies to reduce the amount of the ingredient in its candy bars to avoid hiking up prices.
While these threats are real, they can also be a crutch for companies struggling for other reasons. According to Investors’ Chronicle, companies like clothing brand Next and grocery store Sainsbury's pinned favorable sales last autumn to warm temperatures, despite citing the weather as a reason for slumps months later.
It could suggest “weather-blaming shows a business' relative lack of climate adaptability and poor stock management—or a tendency to look elsewhere for excuses,” the analysis said.
Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData Retail, argued that weather can easily become a scapegoat for sales slumps and disappointments, particularly if companies don’t offer reasons as to how climate impacted business—and especially when other factors, such as sky-high prices and inflation, continue to batter consumer spending.
“I think weather excuses must be specific,” Saunders told Modern Retail. “Generally calling out the weather for reduced foot traffic or general sluggishness is often very weak.”
