For Josh Ellis, a refrigerator technician from southern Wisconsin, Donald Trump’s trial in New York is a sideshow. He’s not convinced of the prosecution’s narrative, or the former president’s – and the verdict will probably not affect his vote in November anyway.
“Biden’s running this country into the ground,” said Ellis, who said the economy was his main concern. At 49, Ellis has long viewed politicians as out of touch on economic issues; he used to vote for Democrats, but switched in 2016 to vote for Trump, who he saw as possibly offering a change.
The jurors in Trump’s New York trial are deliberating over the question of whether or not Trump unlawfully falsified business records to hide a sex scandal before the 2016 election – and it’s not clear how much of an impact their verdict will have on voters, despite the historic nature of a possible conviction.
Like Ellis, voters across the country seem ambivalent about Trump’s criminal charges.
Denise White, who helps manage a social services agency in Atlanta, wears her cynicism about the trial like armor.
“Privilege,” she said. “Patriarchy. All of that is on full display right now. And I am not confident that there will be a just outcome.”
It doesn’t matter, politically, if he is convicted or not: people have made up their minds, White said. “They’re not going to look at him differently there. I think a lot of people are expecting him to be acquitted. If he’s found guilty, I feel like he’s still gonna have a strong support system. And they are going to stand by his side and they’re not going to believe that he was found guilty.”
For Annie, a 60-year-old who lives in Tampa, Florida, who asked her last name not be used for privacy, a guilty verdict would demonstrate Trump’s victimhood and potentially galvanize his base. In contrast, a not guilty verdict could lead to increased scrutiny of the prosecution and the criminal justice system, she said.
“It’s bullshit,” she said, laughing.
“There is no case. He hasn’t committed a crime. It is legal for him to make an agreement with a consenting adult not to talk about something.”
The Trump trial has prosecutors playing saints, she said, adding that the trial was reminiscent of something she might see where she was born in China before emigrating to the US. “I came to this country for a great America. I didn’t come to this country for a losing country.”
Any verdict is likely to deepen polarization, she said. With an acquittal, “the ones who hate him, will hate him more,” she said. “The people who support him will support him more. But the people in the middle will see him as a victim.”
During the Republican primaries, Trump’s initial indictment in the New York case had little impact on his popularity – even galvanizing Republican voters who saw the charges as unfair. A felony conviction, though, could play out differently during the general election, where Biden and Trump will be vying for a segment of independent and swing voters who could be sufficiently turned off by a guilty verdict to abandon Trump.
In a 23 May poll by the Marquette University Law School, respondents across the country who were asked how they would vote in November if Trump is convicted leaned toward Biden by 4%. Given a “not guilty” verdict, Trump enjoyed a six-point advantage among a separate group polled.
Charles Franklin, a professor of government and the director of the Marquette poll, cautioned that while its results provide some indication that a guilty verdict could affect Trump’s performance in November, “there are a couple of reasons to be skeptical” about polling on the trial’s overall impact on voters.
“We’ve seen pretty substantial stability in opinion for the last 18 months that we’ve been following the presidential race,” said Franklin, who noted that during Trump’s first impeachment, polling revealed very little change in public opinion.
“I actually added extra polls during [the impeachment] because I thought we should catch, for history, whatever opinion change took place,” said Franklin, “and – damn, no change at all.”
