Lately, Levan cannot stop thinking about the time he saw Russian tanks roll into his hometown of Gori, an hour’s drive from Georgia’s capital, Tbilisi.
In 2008, Gori was one of the places Moscow bombed and occupied during a short and deadly war that left 20% of the country – though not the city – under de-facto Russian control.
“When Russia invaded Ukraine, we began to worry they might come here again,” said Levan, speaking in the central square of Gori, known as the birthplace of Joseph Stalin and where a museum dedicated to the Soviet dictator attracts thousands of tourists each week.
About 1,200 miles to the west, Sergiu, 62, has his own experiences with Russian aggression.
In 1991, he was drafted in the Moldovan capital, Chișinău, and sent to Transnistria to fight Russian forces after the restive region had broken away from Moldova. The brief conflict ended in a 1992 ceasefire that left more than a thousand Russian troops stationed in Transnistria, which was granted autonomy but is internationally recognised as part of Moldova.
Levan and Sergiu, both of whom requested their last names be omitted to speak freely, said the Kremlin’s wars had left deep wounds in their communities. They also saw their own country’s future in Europe, not Russia.
Yet during an election in Georgia and a referendum in Moldova last month, polls widely seen as pivotal tests of whether the future path of the two former Soviet republics lay with Europe, Levan and Sergiu opted for political forces that favoured closer ties with Moscow, fearing that a pro-western government might provoke the Kremlin into a new war.
The complex election results in these two small but politically significant countries have underscored the growing challenge the EU faces in expanding into territories that Moscow views as part of its sphere of influence.
In Georgia, a ruling party viewed by most countries as increasingly Moscow-friendly and anti-liberal won a parliamentary election last Saturday that was marred by reports of voting violations and fraud.
And in Moldova, only a razor-thin majority backed a key referendum of joining the EU, while the country’s pro-western president, Maia Sandu, faces a tough election runoff this Sunday against a candidate who has called for a “reset” of relations with the Kremlin.
Last month, the Guardian visited Moldova and Georgia. In both countries, many voiced concerns about living under the looming shadow of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Some grappled with what they perceived as the harsh necessity of preserving peace – a reality that often overshadowed the allure of EU integration.
“Peace is by far the most important objective for any government. It is better not to try our luck again and anger Moscow,” said Levan. He voted for the increasingly anti-liberal Georgian Dream (GD) party. It secured 54% of the vote in the parliamentary elections, a result that has in effect stalled the country’s longstanding aspirations to join the EU.
Levan said he “fully agreed” with the party’s central campaign message: “Choose peace, not war”. He said he was worried the opposition would pull Georgia into a Ukraine-style conflict. Others in his hometown seemed to share his concerns – GD won 57% of votes in Gori.
In the weeks leading up to the elections, the ruling party displayed crude billboards across Tbilisi that featured images of bombed-out Ukrainian churches and sports arenas contrasted with idyllic scenes from Georgia.
Speaking in Chișinău, Sergiu, who has retired from the military, said he voted in the country’s 20 October presidential election for the Moscow-friendly socialist candidate, Alexandr Stoianoglo, who advocates for better relations with Russia.
Sergiu said it was naive to believe that Moscow would allow Moldova to join the EU. “Russia wants to keep us under their control forever. For now, we should stay neutral,” he said.
Pro-western politicians in Moldova and Georgia have dismissed Russian invasion fears as scare-mongering orchestrated by the Kremlin, and instead stressed that only the west could guarantee long-term stability. They also reported that pro-Russian forces engaged in widespread disinformation and vote-buying campaigns had created a distorted picture of the actual public sentiment.
Still, the voting in Georgia and Moldova suggests the threat of a Russian invasion resonates at least with certain parts of society, especially in conservative, poorer regions where economic progress has lagged and the promise of Europe feels distant and faint.
It is a trend that has worried European officials. “We are losing the appeal of the EU to brute Russian force,” said one western official in Tbilisi.
The outcome of the Georgian elections, where opinion polls once indicated that up to 80% of the population supported EU integration, has raised questions over the potency of Europe’s soft power. “The ruling party in Georgia has framed this vote as a choice between war and peace. For some, that choice feels more pressing than the question of being pro or against Europe,” the western official said.
Ukraine’s increasingly bleak position on the battlefield, amid dwindling western support for Kyiv, has further validated those advocating for dialogue with Russia.
“America and the EU have supported Ukraine and imposed massive sanctions on Russia. But it didn’t stop Russia … Ukrainian cities are ruined and so many people are dying,” said David Razmadze, a GD official in Gori.
Razmadze said that in Georgia’s 2008 war with Russia, western allies did little to assist while Russian occupation troops remained stationed near Georgia’s border. “Georgians need to realise we are on our own. Europe will not come to our rescue,” he added.
While the Kremlin has not directly threatened to invade either Georgia or Moldova, it has used its vast propaganda machine to highlight the devastation that followed Ukraine’s turn towards the west.
The fear of a new Russian invasion is not the only factor keeping the region within its orbit. Both the GD in Georgia and pro-Russian groups in Moldova have stated their commitment to eventually joining the EU, but they have also criticised what they perceive as the west’s desire to compel their countries to abandon values of “family and church”.
“The EU is forcing us to adopt LGBT legislation that goes against our traditions,” said Razmadze, saying he fully supported his party’s recent crackdown on LGBTQ+ rights that critics say is modelled on Russia’s.
In Moldova and Georgia, two devoutly Orthodox Christian countries, the issue of LGBTQ+ rights remains sensitive. Political forces in both have sought to galvanise anti-liberal sentiment by campaigning against what they perceive as western “moral degradation”.
Russia’s economic influence also continues to loom large over the former Soviet region, casting a shadow on the promise of financial support that EU membership could offer.
In Georgia, where the GD has refused to impose sanctions against Russia, direct flights from Moscow have recently resumed, bringing in thousands of Russian tourists each day. When the invasion in Ukraine prompted Moscow to reduce imports of French and Italian wines, it turned to Georgian wine, resulting in a profitable surge in exports for Georgia.
In Moldova, some still yearn for the days of affordable Russian gas after Gazprom slashed supplies to the country by a third and demanded more than double the previous rates to maintain the flow, a move that was widely seen as political payback for Sandu’s pro-western stance. Stoianoglo in his campaign has pledged to seek negotiations for new gas supplies from Russia.
On Wednesday, the European Commission announced it would not recommend opening EU membership talks with Georgia unless the country changed course. In the same report, the commission kept the door open for Moldova, whose geopolitical future will be once again be on the ballot on Sunday.
