There are signs that the so-called vibecession is back for 2026, but with a twist — it's the highest-earning Americans who feel more glum, as the faltering labor market for white-collar workers drives a bit of a doom loop.
Why it matters: The U.S. economy increasingly runs on the spending power of the upper middle-class and wealthy, and if they're anxious that could affect everyone.
Where it stands: Amazon's latest round of layoffs — 16,000 corporate jobs axed — is the latest piece of grim news for professionals who are growing antsy about the job market.
- An increasing share of Americans are either reporting that they expect to lose pay or have already lost pay, per Morning Consult's data.
- A separate report from The Conference Board on Tuesday also showed that people's perceptions about the job market — the so-called labor market differential — are continuing to flag.
By the numbers: Economic sentiment — feelings about the overall economy and our personal finances — is falling for everyone.
- Among those making more than $100,000 a year, sentiment dropped more than 10% since the end of 2025, per data from Morning Consult.
Zoom out: A drop like this has happened on six other occasions since 2018. But in those cases, the decline was tied to a worsening stock market.
- This time it's about the job market, says John Leer, Morning Consult's chief economist.
The big picture: Hiring has slowed in the professional sector. It's far harder to get a job now than it was coming out of the pandemic when the labor market was booming.
- The reasons are complicated — higher interest rates have made companies slow their roll, many over-hired in the boom, and a pullback from the White House is driving a retrenchment in a range of white-collar jobs across consulting, academia and the research sector.
Between the lines: But looming over all of that is AI anxiety. Companies are eager to prove that their copious investments in the technology are paying off, and so are talking up the notion that it'll drive productivity growth and lead to job cuts.
- Professionals are getting the message that a new technology is here that will probably take their job — at the same time they're being warned that they better learn how to use this technology fast.
- Consider the message a bit of psychological whiplash to toss into your 2026 performance review.
Yes, but: As we all learned in 2022 and 2023, a vibecession is not necessarily a predictor of an actual recession. Unemployment is still relatively low, and, historically, over the long run big technological advancements have driven job growth.
The bottom line: "We've entered this world where basically people are just on high alert," Leer says.
- "You feel like AI is all around you, and when you experience some kind of negative labor market outcome it has an outsize effect on how you feel about your personal finances and the overall economy."
