The 49ers wide receiver trade rumors started leading up to the 2024 NFL draft. They could have stopped after the draft when San Francisco dealt neither Brandon Aiyuk nor Deebo Samuel. Alas, they persist because content rules above logic.
Let’s try and iron this out.
It would not make sense for the 49ers to move on from either Samuel or Aiyuk at this juncture or at any other point this season given what would realistically be available on the trade market.
Typically one of these trade rumors revolves around the 49ers’ financial situation and their ability to pay their WRs. They’re already more than $25 million under this year’s salary cap with both Aiyuk and Samuel on the books. This aspect will matter a ton next offseason and perhaps this year while the 49ers are trying to iron out an extension with Aiyuk.
It’s important to note though that Aiyuk is still under contract for the 2024 season. He’ll likely not want to play on his fifth-year option, but he’s less likely to want to sit out a year and run into this problem again next offseason because he didn’t accrue his fifth season. If he and the 49ers can’t come to an agreement on a deal, they’re more likely to call his bluff on not playing than to give him away.
There’s an underlying key to everything when it comes to the trade rumors with the 49ers WRs though.
San Francisco is trying to win the Super Bowl. Their window is shutting rapidly, and it’s unclear how if/when it will be thrown back open by a new, younger core.
The 2024 season marks perhaps the final time this older core of 49ers will get a chance to try for a Lombardi Trophy together. There is urgency in winning now. There is not urgency in maximizing the return for Aiyuk if he winds up leaving.
Chances are the 49ers would rather have Aiyuk this year and get a compensatory third-round pick for him in the 2026 draft instead of moving him for an asset that won’t get them closer to the Super Bowl in 2024.
The same goes for Samuel, who may be on his way out next offseason as the team tries to maneuver under the 2025 salary cap. They’re currently more than $41 million over according to Over the Cap.
Trading Samuel this year not only makes the 49ers’ offense dramatically worse, but it thrusts either Jauan Jennings into a bigger role or puts rookie first-round pick Ricky Pearsall into an extremely important spot right away. That’s not something San Francisco is likely aiming to do in 2024.
It’s clear some kind of major shakeup is coming in the 49ers WR room. The turbulence leading up to and during the draft made it appear those moves were on the horizon, but when nothing materialized during the draft it became clear the most logical course of action for San Francisco would be to keep its receiving corps together for 2024 to try and win the Super Bowl.
Anything beyond that will be taken care of next year.
