Israeli defence officials have been surprised by the speed at which Iran is rebuilding parts of its military capabilities, with the country's ballistic missile programme emerging as a particular concern, the Jerusalem Post reported.
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According to the report the assessment is based on information from Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) and Mossad officials. The IDF has been the primary evaluator of the damage caused to Iran's defence sector.
The assessment marks a shift from earlier Israeli claims that attacks had set Iran's military-industrial capabilities back by several years. The Post said that, four months after the main war ended in April, Israeli officials are now seeing a faster-than-expected recovery across several areas.
The report said the IDF had previously been surprised by Iran's ability to restore its missile capabilities following Israeli strikes in October 2024 and June 2025.
In October 2024, Israel struck 20 ballistic missile and military-industrial targets in Iran. The IDF subsequently said the attacks had delayed Iran's future missile production by at least a year.
By early 2025, however, Israeli officials had seen Iran restore its production pace, according to the Post. Israel then carried out strikes against around 100 missile and military-industrial targets in June 2025, claiming that the larger campaign would set back Iranian missile production by several years.
The report said estimates of Iran's missile inventory rose from about 1,300 missiles in June 2025 to 2,500 by February 2026, despite the earlier Israeli strikes.
In 2026, Israel and the United States mounted a substantially larger campaign against Iran.
According to figures cited by the Jerusalem Post, more than 2,600 missile and military-industrial targets were attacked, while US and Israeli forces carried out around 30,000 strikes collectively.
Israeli officials had previously told the Post that the attacks had severely damaged Iran's military-industrial infrastructure.
The latest assessment, however, suggests Tehran has found ways to restore specific military capabilities even while large parts of the country remain damaged, the report said.
The Post said senior Israeli defence officials now acknowledge that Iran has found ways to concentrate its resources on rebuilding particular capabilities, especially missiles.
New York Times had also previously reported that Iran had used bulldozers to reopen access to underground missile facilities that had been blocked by Israeli attacks.
The Jerusalem Post said it had independently confirmed statements from senior Iranian officials indicating that new weapons production had resumed at a faster pace than Israeli officials had expected.
That development could change the way Israel assesses Iran's remaining missile arsenal. Israeli officials had previously debated whether Iran retained around 500 or 1,000 long-range missiles capable of reaching Israel after the 2026 war.
The Post reported that the more important question may now be how quickly Tehran can manufacture new missiles rather than how many remained immediately after the war.
According to the report, if Iran were able to produce 100 to 300 missiles a month, it could potentially return to its June 2025 arsenal levels by early or mid-2027 and pose a major threat again by 2028.
The IDF confirmed to the Jerusalem Post that its strikes had significantly damaged multiple components of Iran's military capabilities, including its ability to use and rebuild them at their previous scale and pace.
However, the military said it was continuing to monitor Iran's efforts to restore and rebuild its capabilities and that its assessments were being updated as developments occurred.
The IDF declined to provide specific estimates of Iran's rehabilitation speed, saying such details could expose its sources and methods.
The development could also affect Israel's broader calculations over whether further military action against Iran may be necessary, particularly as negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear programme continue.
The Post reported that another option for Israel could be to tolerate the rebuilding of Iran's ballistic missile capabilities while focusing on limiting Tehran's nuclear threat, particularly given US President Donald Trump's stated lack of interest in the missile issue.
