So far, the war in Gaza prompted by Hamas’s attack on 7 October has not precipitated the nightmare scenario – a wider Middle East conflict drawing in the US and Iran. But after events of the past few days, that risk appears to be becoming more serious.
The centre of the danger is in the Red Sea, where Houthi forces based in Yemen and backed by Iran have been attacking freighters with real or perceived links to Israel. The US has offered protection to shipping travelling through the region, assembling a multinational naval coalition “to uphold the foundational principle of freedom of navigation”. But President Joe Biden has said he wants to avoid direct military confrontation with the Houthis for fear of triggering an escalation.
