Israel will hold a national election on October 27, its first since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack that pulled the country into wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. Polls point to a clear defeat for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but Israel's fractured political system means no outcome is guaranteed until a coalition actually forms.
What the surveys say
Netanyahu's security credentials took a direct hit from the October 7 attacks. Voters have broadly backed the military campaigns against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, but surveys consistently show weak trust in his leadership, and his government's stance on religion and state policy remains unpopular with large sections of the public.
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Even so, Netanyahu has outlasted every Israeli leader before him, and no rival currently polls a clear route to the premiership either.
Who could replace him
Three names dominate the challenge to Netanyahu:
- Gadi Eisenkot , a former military chief who lost a son in Gaza, has climbed steadily in the polls, positioning himself as a security-focused outsider whose personal sacrifice contrasts with Netanyahu's long tenure and ongoing corruption trials.
- Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid , former prime ministers whose unlikely alliance removed Netanyahu from power in 2021. Their coalition, spanning liberal and conservative parties plus an Islamist Arab party for the first time in the country's history, survived just 18 months.
- Avigdor Lieberman , once a Netanyahu ally, quit his cabinet in 2018 over what he called a soft line on Gaza militants, and has since turned into one of his fiercest critics.
The 120-seat Knesset is technically elected every four years, though few governments have completed a full term. Netanyahu's current government, formed in 2022 with the most right-wing coalition in Israel's history, is a rare exception, having lasted a full term after the instability of 2019-2022.
Why coalitions decide everything
Seats are distributed by proportional representation to parties clearing a 3.25% vote threshold, roughly four seats. No party has ever won a majority outright, so governing requires coalition-building, which gives small factions outsized leverage.
Netanyahu's reliance on ultra-Orthodox parties, particularly over their exemption from military service, has been a persistent flashpoint, intensified by the ongoing war.
The main contenders
Party lists are due by September, so the field could still shift. Netanyahu's current bloc includes his own Likud, Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism and Itamar Ben-Gvir's Jewish Power, with United Torah Judaism and Shas offering outside support after quitting the coalition in 2024.
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Challenging him are Eisenkot's Yashar, the Bennett-Lapid alliance under Together, Lieberman's Israel Our Home, four parties representing Israel's Arab minority (Hadash, Taal, Raam and Balad), and the left-wing Democrats led by former general Yair Golan.
With inputs from Reuters
