Diplomats hope to announce plans to extend the four-day temporary ceasefire in Gaza well before it ends, but have to persuade the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, that he is not being lured into a trap that will extend Hamas’s rule in Gaza.
Lists of Hamas-held hostages have been drawn up going beyond the 50 captives expected to be released over the next four days. But those involved in the talks acknowledge the difficulties, including the likelihood that Hamas may seek the release of a proportionally higher number of Palestinians than the one for three ratio agreed for the first tranche of hostages. There are as many as 7,000 Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails, including some serving multiple life sentences for murder.
As many as 10 days provisionally could be set aside for a rolling pause, but Qatar – which negotiated the deal between Israel and Hamas – has not set a cap. Netanyahu and his defence team said Israel’s military was already preparing for the restart of hostilities after four days, a threat that is not unexpected.
The diplomats’ difficulty is that both sides in the war have good reasons not to extend the ceasefire. Hamas would lose leverage over Israel if all the hostages were released. It is also argued that Hamas cannot afford to make too many concessions without losing support to the other rival military groups operating in Gaza, such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
For Netanyahu, the risk lies in being drawn into a ceasefire that leaves Hamas’s military structures intact – an outcome that runs counter to his vow this battle is not a repetition of the four previous conflicts with Hamas in Gaza that left it in power. Netanyahu has called it a fight between barbarism and civilisation, so can hardly afford a conflict that does not lead to complete victory.
Moreover, Netanyahu knows if he were to settle for a murky outcome he would be pilloried by rightwing extremists in his government that could then withdraw from the government and force an election that the polls show the public wants – and that he would lose badly.
So those pressing for an extension of the ceasefire do not hold many cards. They are relying on overpowering domestic emotional pressure from the families of the still-unreleased hostages, as well as international demand that humanitarian aid has to continue into Gaza. The next few days may do something to underline how close Gaza has been to a form of mass starvation.
Diplomats see the three key players in Israeli decision-making as the war cabinet, Netanhayu’s office, and the Mossad intelligence agency and of those three, the Mossad is most likely to back an extension of the pause.
It is hoped the Mossad has the knowledge to convince Netanyahu that the military elimination of Hamas has at least to be defined, and possibly qualified.
It is being argued that it is for the US president, Joe Biden, to tell Netanyahu directly that regardless of the war’s outcome, he will not survive politically, and his legacy would be better served by coming to an agreement. But that requires Arab states to show a willingness to take responsibility for Israel’s future security.
The announcement on Friday by the Egyptian president, Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, that he could see a role for the Arab peacekeeping force is an advance. His remarks at least hold out the prospect of a political horizon that up until now has been lacking, apart from continued Israeli security control of Gaza.
Sisi called for a Palestinian state, but “demilitarised and for there to be guarantees for this in the form of Nato forces, UN forces, Arab forces, American. Whatever you want.” He may not be talking about an interim security role in Gaza for Arab states, but a longer-term proposition once a Palestinian state is formed.
But it is an admission of a future role for Arab states as security guarantors. It may not be a coincidence that he made these remarks after speaking to Biden, who again assured him he would not permit Israel to force Palestinian refugees over the border from Gaza into Sinai. Sisi is convinced Israel wants to make Gaza uninhabitable.
Biden again ruled out a future role for Hamas in Gaza. That would require efforts to revive a reconciliation between the secular Fatah in the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza. Reconciliation talks between the two organisations have been staged on a near annual basis since 2005 in Damascus, Mecca, Cairo, Doha, Algiers and places in between. None of them, including the most recent in 2022, lasted. But rejuvenation of the Palestinian political leadership is indispensable if these cycles of indescribable violence are to end.
