Welcome to The Weekly Takedown, Sports Illustrated’s in-depth look at MMA. Every week, this column offers insight and information on the most noteworthy stories in the fight world.
Islam Makhachev put the question into the universe.
The reigning UFC lightweight champion tweeted on Wednesday, “who is next?”
Naturally, plenty of fighters reacted to the post, including Dustin Poirier. But the most notable of those to reply was Alexander Volkanovski, who just lost two weeks ago to Makhachev by unanimous decision at UFC 284.
Makhachev clearly won three of the five rounds, but aesthetically, it ended in Volkanovski’s favor. He was on top of Makhachev as the fifth round finished, hitting the champ with a flurry of vicious shots–a scene that simply does not occur in Makhachev’s bouts. Volkanovski got stronger as the fight continued. Coupled with the controversy surrounding whether Makhachev used intravenous therapy to rehydrate after weighing in, which is illegal under the rules of the Western Australia Combat Sport Commission (the fight was held in Perth, Australia), there is even more reason to run this back.
A drawback to an immediate rematch is that it prevents Volkanovski from defending his featherweight title in a unification bout against interim champ Yair Rodriguez. But there is no urgency to that bout. Plus, if Volkanovski defeats Makhachev, it is unlikely he will be returning any time soon to the featherweight division. Until he does, Rodriguez has potential opponents in undefeated Ilia Topuria and the winner of the upcoming Max Holloway-Arnold Allen bout in April.
If there is a Makhachev-Volkanovski rematch this summer, it plays in the favor of the lightweight division. By then, the Charles Oliveira-Beneil Dariush bout in May will have played out, as well as Justin Gaejthe-Rafael Fiziev in March, so the top contenders will be firmly in place. Poirier is in a quagmire; he has won four of his last five fights, but did lose against Oliveira in December 2021. Since then, he has fought once, defeating Michael Chandler last November, yet it still feels like Poirier is at least one more win away from a title shot.
The winner of Oliveira and Dariush should be the next in line for a title shot. Dariush has built an impress eight-fight win streak, which most recently includes a one-sided victory against Mateusz Gamrot. Oliveira is the former lightweight champion. He had won eleven bouts in a row until Makhachev defeated him by submission last October.
“It wasn’t my night,” Oliveira told Sports Illustrated. “He was better than I was.”
Makhachev turned out to be a very bad matchup for Oliveira, but a rematch could rewrite that narrative. And if Dariush wins, it will be nearly impossible to keep him out of the title shot.
It will be hard to deny a title shot to the winner of Dariush-Oliveira, but for now, there is no definitive clear-cut challenger for Makhachev. Volkanovski, who took him to the limit at 284, makes the most sense as the answer to Makhachev’s question.
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Why Gane Has a Legit Shot in UFC 285 Headliner
Ciryl Gane has never faced an opponent like Jon Jones.
The upcoming bout at next week’s UFC 285 card is an especially challenging bout for Gane, especially considering he was outwrestled by Francis Ngannou in their lone meeting. A lot of that had to do with Ngannou’s incredible power, but Jones possesses a rare blend of power and grappling technique–making him more dangerous than Tai Tuivasa, Derrick Lewis, or anyone else Gane has fought.
But Jones looked beatable in his last two fights. The split-decision victory against Thiago Santos in 2019 was an extremely close bout. There is also a convincing argument to be made that the judges did Dominick Reyes wrong by not scoring the fight in his favor when he lost to Jones by unanimous decision in February of 2020 (Reyes was 12-0 entering that bout; including the loss against Jones, he has now lost four in a row). Is it possible, at the age of 35, Jones will somehow look better next week than he did three or even four years ago?
Gane has a similar reach, which is problematic for Jones. That is another reason for the unpredictability of this bout. Jones has been away from the cage for three years, he is finally making his heavyweight debut, and this is a division where anything can happen.
Jones clearly isn’t returning to lose, and it is easy to envision him going five rounds and winning by decision. Yet this is far from a certainty, and he will need to be significantly better than he was against Santos and Reyes if he intends to defeat Gane.
