If you’re playing fantasy football, you’ve probably heard of ADP or “average draft position.” For those who don’t know, ADP is exactly what it sounds like … it’s the average draft spot where a player is being picked. Based on this information, we can decipher player values and form a game plan for when and where we should target them in drafts.
For this exercise, I looked at data to find the players who appeared to be, in my opinion, players I’d avoid. This isn’t because I don’t like the player (in many cases I do), but they’re being picked too highly in drafts.
I chose ESPN as their default scoring system is full-point PPR. While these ADPs won’t be the same on every platform (you’ll notice a big difference in high-stakes leagues), it’s a good way to pick out players who cost too much.
Puka Nacua, WR, Rams (ADP – 13.5): Nacua is coming off a breakout season and is worth a top-20 pick. However, ESPN’s ADP has him coming off the board ahead of Garrett Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr., two receivers I value more in drafts. And, while his 13.5 ADP isn’t absurd, I do have concerns about how a healthy Cooper Kupp will affect Nacua’s value.
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs (ADP – 19.9): Don’t get me wrong, I’m a fan of Pacheco and his hard running style… but not as a second-round pick. There are a couple of backs I value in Round 2 ahead of him, like Travis Etienne Jr. and De’Vone Achane. Pacheco’s ADP is a far more reasonable 29.9 in the NFFC, at which point I’d be happy to take him.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs (ADP – 23.0): ESPN is one of the lone sites where I’m seeing Kelce go ahead of Sam LaPorta (27.9) based on their ADP data. Despite his past elite fantasy numbers, I’m not taking the soon-to-be 35-year-old tight end in the second round … especially after what was a subpar 2023 statistical season (based on his standards), not to mention the addition of wide receives Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy.
Stefon Diggs, WR, Texans (ADP – 34.3): What jumped out to me about Diggs is he’s being picked ahead of teammate Nico Collins (37.9) based on ESPN ADP. In 2024, Collins is the top Texans wideout to target in Round 3 while Diggs is second, coming in as more of a fourth-round pick. For that reason, I see Diggs as a value buster.
Joe Mixon, RB, Texans (ADP – 34.6): Mixon was the RB6 last season, but I think regression is coming his way. Remember, the Bengals needed to lean on the run more because Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins were all injured at different parts of the year. And while the Texans' offense should be explosive, I don’t see Mixon being worth a third-round pick. He’s a much more reasonable 45.3 based on the current ADP data at the NFFC.
Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints (ADP – 37.1): In most of the best-ball and mock drafts I’ve done, Kamara is still available into the fifth round. That’s the case in 10-team formats over at the NFFC, where Kamara’s ADP is 51.6. I’d be fine with drafting him in the fourth round of a 12-teamer, but I still think a 37.1 ADP is pushing it for the veteran Saints running back.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens (ADP – 37.5): I don’t take quarterbacks in the first five rounds, because there are always values in the middle to late rounds. On the NFFC site, Jackson isn’t coming off the board until 50.4, which is more than a full round lower than on ESPN. So, as great as he is as a player, Jackson would have to fall in drafts for me to consider him.
C.J. Stroud, QB, Texans (ADP – 44.8): Everything points to Stroud being a fantasy star. He was solid as a rookie, and now he has Mixon and Diggs at his disposal in what should be an exciting offense. However, he’s still going more than a round too early on ESPN. In fact, I wouldn’t consider taking Stroud until the fifth round (and I’d probably pass there, too).
George Kittle, TE, 49ers (ADP – 56.2): Kittle is one of the top tight ends in fantasy football, and he showed that with a top-five finish last season. He can be inconsistent at times, however, as I’ve moved upstarts like Trey McBride and Dalton Kincaid ahead of him at the position. He’s been picked at 80.8 based on NFFC data, and that’s where I’d be fine drafting him. Taking him in the fifth round, to me, is too high and not a move I’d make.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Isiah Pacheco, Travis Kelce Among Fantasy Football Losers Based on ADP Draft Values.
