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Sohini Mondal

Is Walmart Stock Underperforming the S&P 500?

With a market cap of $944.9 billion, Walmart Inc. (WMT) is a global retailer that operates through three main segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam’s Club. The company runs retail and wholesale stores, eCommerce platforms, and digital payment services, offering a broad assortment of merchandise, groceries, health and wellness products, and financial solutions.

Companies valued at more than $200 billion are generally considered “mega-cap” stocks, and Walmart fits this criterion perfectly. Guided by its everyday low price (EDLP) philosophy and omni-channel strategy, Walmart helps customers save money and live better by seamlessly integrating in-store and online shopping experiences.

Shares of the Bentonville, Arkansas-based company have decreased 12% from its 52-week high of $135.15. Over the past three months, its shares have fallen 7.1%, lagging behind the broader S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) nearly 10% rise during the same period.

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WMT stock is up 6.7% on a YTD basis, underperforming SPX's 10.5% gain. Longer term, shares of the retail giant have returned 22.3% over the past 52 weeks, compared to the 28.5% return of the SPX over the same time frame.

Despite a few fluctuations, the stock has been in a bullish trend, consistently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages since last year.

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Shares of Walmart tumbled 7.3% on May 21 as investors were disappointed that the company maintained its conservative full-year outlook despite reporting solid Q1 2027 results, including a 7.1% increase in net sales to $175.7 billion and a 5% rise in operating income to $7.49 billion. The retailer reaffirmed annual guidance for net sales growth of 3.5% to 4.5% and EPS of $2.75 to $2.85, while forecasting Q2 adjusted EPS of $0.72 to $0.74, below analyst expectations.

Investors also reacted to mounting macroeconomic pressures highlighted by management, including fuel prices near $4 per gallon, a $175 million hit to Q1 operating income from higher fuel costs, slowing spending per visit growth to 1.1% from 2.8% a year earlier, and warnings about potentially higher retail price inflation in the second half of the year.

In comparison, WMT stock has underperformed its rival Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) on a YTD basis, with COST shares rising 15.4%. However, over the past 52 weeks, COST stock has declined 1.8%, trailing WMT stock’s performance.

Despite WMT’s underperformance relative to the SPX over the past year, analysts remain bullish about its prospects. The stock has a consensus rating of “Strong Buy” from 38 analysts in coverage, and the mean price target of $140.89 is a premium of 18.5% to current levels.

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