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Sohini Mondal

Is Tractor Supply Stock Underperforming the Dow?

With a market cap of $26 billion, Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) is a U.S.-based rural lifestyle retailer that sells products for farmers, ranchers, and rural homeowners. The company offers a wide range of merchandise, including livestock and equine feed, pet supplies, lawn and garden equipment, tools, hardware, and clothing. 

Companies valued more than $10 billion are generally considered “large-cap” stocks, and Tractor Supply fits this criterion perfectly. It operates retail stores under the Tractor Supply Company, Petsense by Tractor Supply, and Orscheln Farm and Home brands, along with e-commerce websites. It primarily serves recreational farmers, ranchers, and rural lifestyle customers across the United States.

 

Shares of the Brentwood, Tennessee-based company have fallen 22.9% from its 52-week high of $63.99. Tractor Supply’s shares have decreased 4.7% over the past three months, a more pronounced decline than the broader Dow Jones Industrials Average's ($DOWI) 2.6% dip over the same time frame. 

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In the longer term, shares of the retailer have declined 5.4% over the past 52 weeks, lagging behind DOWI’s 14.4% return over the same time frame. However, TSCO stock is down 1% on a YTD basis, slightly outpacing Dow Jones’ 1.3% decline.

Yet, the stock has been trading below its 50-day moving average since late September 2025.

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Shares of Tractor Supply tumbled 7.6% on Jan. 29 after the company reported Q4 2025 results that missed expectations, with net income declining 3.8% to $227.4 million and diluted EPS slipping to $0.43 from $0.44 a year earlier. Although Q4 net sales rose 3.3% to $3.90 billion, comparable store sales increased only 0.3%, reflecting weaker discretionary spending and the absence of emergency-response demand. Investor sentiment was also pressured by higher costs and margin pressure, as SG&A expenses increased 6% to $1.07 billion and operating income fell 6.5% to $297.7 million.

In comparison, rival Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) has outpaced TSCO stock. WSM stock has gained 1% on a YTD basis and 3.2% over the past 52 weeks.

Despite the stock’s underperformance, analysts remain moderately optimistic on TSCO. The stock has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” from the 29 analysts in coverage, and the mean price target of $58.19 is a premium of 18% to current levels.

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