More than 70 million people have joined Threads since it launched on Wednesday night, posting 95 million times. The app is an overnight success—largely thanks to the unimaginable weight the app’s owner, Meta, has to throw around. Even with billions of dollars and thousands of employees at Meta’s disposal, its long-term viability hinges on whether it can maintain user interest and relevance in the future. So, does this mean Twitter is not long for this world?
“My guess is that we may end up with two sites for two different audiences and different content,” a former Twitter executive told Fortune on the condition of anonymity. “Sort of like CNN and Fox News. Some people will be on both and some will pick the one they feel more comfortable with.”
For those who aren’t familiar with Threads, you’re likely aware of its competitor and twin, Twitter. Both are text-based platforms. The former is owned by Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta, which also owns Facebook, WhatsApp, and Instagram. Twitter was acquired in November 2022 for $44 billion by Elon Musk, a tech mogul known for his feats in electric vehicles but not so much in the social media market, who subsequently broke it to bits.
The Threads app itself is fairly bare bones, lacking features such as direct messages, a chronological feed, post drafting capabilities, the ability to add alt text to images, and more. The fact the new app has nonetheless attracted so many users highlights the power of network effects and the self-destructive tendencies of Twitter.
Yet, despite users rallying around Threads being the "Twitter killer," it's unlikely that Twitter will die in a blaze of glory. That's not Meta's goal either, at least, not publicly.
“The goal isn't to replace Twitter,” head of Instagram Adam Mosseri posted on Threads. “The goal is to create a public square for communities on Instagram that never really embraced Twitter and for communities on Twitter (and other platforms) that are interested in a less angry place for conversations, but not all of Twitter.”
A not-so-different approach
Since Musk’s takeover, a predictable cycle has emerged. Musk says something outlandish, like spreading conspiracy theories about Nancy Pelosi’s husband, and many outraged users claim they’re fleeing the platform. A litany of copycat platforms and protocols have surfaced to meet this demand, like Bluesky, Mastodon, Spill and many more. When one of these platforms emerges, some Twitter users find a noticeable decline in engagement occurs as people get their hands on the shiny, new toy. Yet, once the toy loses its luster, users begrudgingly return to Twitter, seemingly waiting to be outraged once again.
Now, enter Threads, one of the most viable options to appear. It’s spun out of Instagram, so users have the option to sync up all their existing data (who they follow, bio, profile picture) and easily get started. Meta also has a significant advantage over new social media platforms, like Bluesky, in terms of stability and mitigating risk factors. With its existing resources, financial backing, and established systems, Meta is well-positioned to attract mainstream users from the start.
"Between the emergence of Threads and distributed platforms like Bluesky and Mastodon, we’re witnessing the great uncoupling of text-based social," Twitter's former head of corporate communications Jim Prosser told Fortune. "Each platform is, intentionally or not, serving a fragmented part of what made Twitter 1.0 a special place and made it impossible to kill."
Twitter continues to attract users who prioritize news and real-time information, which Musk has his focus on clear. However, individuals seeking a platform for celebrities, brands, and mainstream culture may gravitate towards Threads, positioning Meta to serve those preferences, Prosser adds.
Mainstream content seems to be what Threads is doing best. Meta worked with dozens of influencers and celebrities to onboard them early, including big names like Ellen Degeneres, Khloe Kardashian, Charli D’Amelio and more. Brands like Spotify and Netflix, and publications such as Fortune and Bloomberg, have all flocked there too. Even one of the Twitter's most influential "shitposters," Dril, supposedly made a Threads account.
“Threads is, at its core, a broadcast surface. A broadcast surface is built for that sort of high velocity – of sharing, of hoping to go viral, of massive reach. A broadcast surface relies on constant content creation, and on non-creating users being served enough variety and new stuff to keep them interested,” former Instagram senior staffer Leah Reich wrote. “This is where the numbers will certainly help, but the question is: How many of those creators will be Constantly Online enough to help maintain the type of content Threads will need to continue succeeding?”
For now, it's unclear whether Threads can be successful in the long haul, but it's certainly been a much needed breath of fresh air for Meta, which has faced intense scrutiny for its involvement in disseminating misinformation and fostering toxic content. While the app has received some favorable reviews, concerns about Meta's influence and consolidation of power have emerged. Users have also raised concerns about the need to delete their Instagram account to deactivate Threads, prompting Instagram to explore alternative solutions.
“Their main challenge is keeping this growing audience engaged,” Prosser said.
Another clear issue is that many users aren’t necessarily interested in their Instagram contacts, such as your aunt or old grade school classmates, seeing what one may post about on Twitter. The mingling of Instagram followers in a text-based app is “obviously great for influencers, but not sure about the average user,” the anonymous former Twitter exec said.
What’s more, over the past few years, Meta, as a company, has made deliberate efforts to distance itself from news content, even going so far as to downgrade its prominence on platforms like Facebook and Instagram and eliminated features like the news tab and taken other measures, the Verge’s Alex Heath pointed out in a Threads post. Now, Meta is making threats to remove all news content in countries where proposed laws demand payment to publishers for hosting their links.
In response to Heath’s post, Mosseri responded that while “politics and hard news are inevitably going to show up on Threads,” the company will not “do anything to encourage those verticals.”
“Politics and hard news are important, I don't want to imply otherwise,” Mosseri continued. “But my take is, from a platform's perspective, any incremental engagement or revenue they might drive is not at all worth the scrutiny, negativity (let's be honest), or integrity risks that come along with them.”
Everything old is new again
The ongoing rivalry between Zuckerberg and Twitter is a timeless tale, with reports suggesting that Zuckerberg has made two attempts to acquire the social media platform. In past efforts to outmaneuver Twitter, Facebook has taken actions like severing Twitter's API access and blocking the friend-finding feature of Vine, a video app owned by Twitter, on the very day of its launch.
Today, the social media owners are threatening the world with a good time, with Musk saying he's "up for a cage fight" with Zuckerberg over comments Meta’s chief product officer made about Threads being a “sanely run” Twitter competitor, and Zuckerberg posted on Instagram that he’s interested in taking the fight on. While it’s doubtful that their sparring will be taken to a "Vegas octagon" anytime soon, it’s indicative of just how petty the competition is getting.
For Twitter’s part, it only took the company less than 24 hours before threatening legal action against Meta. Alex Spiro, the personal lawyer of Musk, sent a letter to Zuckerberg on Thursday alleging that Meta had recruited numerous former Twitter employees and utilized Twitter's trade secrets and intellectual property to develop a "copycat" app. A spokesperson for Meta said “that’s just not a thing.” The battle of the platforms continues.
For now, the two platforms seem to measure success differently, too. While Twitter struggles to maintain a positive relationship with advertisers, due to concerns with content moderation and the unpredictability of Musk, Threads has no ads, at least for now — Instagram CEO Adam Mosseri telling the Verge that will be a “champagne problem” if Threads achieves enough scale.
“Twitter should be concerned, and should revert back to Twitter 1.0 to retain users,” a Twitter employee who spoke on the condition of anonymity told Fortune. “If this kills Twitter I’ll be more upset as a Twitter addict than as an employee.”
Ultimately, it seems unlikely that Threads will be the "Twitter killer" that some fanatic users claim it will be. Instead, what we'll find is a more fragmented, democratized town square where users have the power to choose, according to ex-head of product at Twitter (and seed investor in Bluesky) Amir Shevat. Whether that be Bluesky for community, Twitter for news, and Threads for influencer content, there are more choices now than ever — and that's a good thing.
"It's good to have diversity when it comes to a public conversation, and I think up until now, we had a monopoly on the public conversation," Shevat told Fortune. "Having one stage is dangerous, and having multiple stages is actually good for democracy and good for us all."
"The fatigue of installing and having another password, like, get over it! It's good for humanity to have multiple public conversations," Shevat said.
