As of this morning, Chicago wheat has rallied $1.50 from its low put in place on the 8th of March. While wheat gets a lot of grief from grain traders as being volatile and difficult to pin down, it tends to be a quiet leader to the entire ag complex, whether folks want to admit it or not. Wheat was what started the run up in grain prices in late 2020 when production reductions due to low margins for growers around the world ran into unexpected yield losses. Higher wheat prices then encouraged an increase in global production that was able to help keep world end users supplied even when faced with the world’s largest exporter invading its neighbor.
Wheat was also the first to complete the cycle, going from near record low prices to near record high and back to pre-invasion levels all within a few growing seasons, bringing us back to where I started, the low the July contract hit on March 8th.
