In the past few months we have been witnesses to multiple big time running backs holding out for long term contracts or general adjustments to their contracts. These running backs are among the best in the game with the likes of Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, and the leagues leading rusher, Josh Jacobs voicing displeasure with their current contract. Time and time again we see the teams refuse to meet the running back’s demands, and either finding a compromise, or allowing the contract situation linger late into the offseason with no resolution in sight.
Does that mean the running back position is obsolete? One would be hard pressed to argue that given multiple backs were selected in the top half of the 2023 draft, including Bijan Robinson going eight overall to the Falcons. You also see teams shelling out large trade packages in order to secure the services of Christian McCaffrey. Though you could certainly argue that Robinson and McCaffrey are much more valuable than just pure running backs, as they are both capable receiver who could line up at any of the receiver positions if asked, and can be used in a variety of ways.
Perhaps teams are wising up to this history of paying big time runners, with notable disaster after disaster happening to the teams that have handed their backs large sums of cash. Ezekiel Elliot, David Johnson, Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell, etc etc. Time and time again teams have handed out large contracts for backs only for them to be injured, busts, or be off the team within the next three seasons. Given that the position has plenty of depth available in the league with the likes of Dalvin Cook, Kareem Hunt, and Leonard Fournette available to be signed today, likely on a value contract, the motivation to sign a back to a big deal falls to the wayside.
This point is driven home even more when you consider teams have had success historically finding young backs in the middle of the draft that can come in and at the very least be producers for their offense. Can you really justify saddling your offense with a mega contract when the Chiefs, Falcons, and Texans managed to find some of the most productive rookie runners in the league in the latter half of the draft?
It has been proven time and time again that teams are much better suited in spending big money and high draft picks on their offensive line, and finding a talented ball carrier in the middle round of the draft that can take advantage of the wholes created by your high end line. Is it entirely ethical to draft a back, run him ragged for years, just to franchise tag him and dangle short term contracts in front of him? Not particularly. Is it the most productive way to build a roster given the current state of quarterback contracts? Unfortunately so.
Unless you have a true elite level playmaker who is going to make a difference every time he touches the football, and can be a versatile tool for your offense, it makes less and less sense to pay them from a team building point of view. The likes of Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb are going to become more rare as the years pass, and while that doesn’t necessarily make for better football, it is a natural response to adaptive general managers, and a market that heavily favors the passing game.
