New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas has been a roller coaster of ups and downs in his career – reaching the highest of peaks and the sharpest of drops over his seven NFL seasons.
In his first four seasons with Drew Brees, it looked as though Thomas was building a first-ballot Hall of Fame resume. In 63 games, he caught 470 passes for 5,512 yards and 32 touchdowns. Then lower-body injuries started piling up, and he began missing a ton of time – ironically coinciding with signing a massive five-year, $96 million contract.
In 2020, Thomas played in just seven games – missing time with ankle and hamstring injuries. The team felt he needed surgery to fix the nagging ankle problem, but Thomas received a second opinion that said rehabilitation could heal it. It didn’t, and Thomas had ankle surgery in June 2021 – missing the entire season and creating an ugly rift between himself and the coaching staff. Supposedly fully healed, Thomas suffered a toe injury in Week 3 of last season that sidelined him the remainder of the year.
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Given the strained relationship, many organizations would have parted ways with Thomas, but his contract is the rub. He signed an incentive-heavy, one-year deal for $10 million that could reach $15 million. However, with his restructured deal, if he was traded or released this year, the Saints would take a dead money cap hit of $36 million (or $21.9 million if he is moved out prior to the 2024 season). Like it or not, the Saints almost have to keep him if they want to be competitive, even if he no-shows again this year.
Thomas has missed 40 of the last 49 games the Saints have played, and anyone who invested in him as a presumptive fantasy starter was burned. This may be Thomas’ final year to attempt to reclaim his spot as an elite receiver, but patience is running out after three years of providing nothing.
Fantasy football outlook
Thomas has shown the ability to catch passes in bunches – he has averaged 7.2 receptions a game throughout his career. But what seems just as clear is that there are a lot fewer people who believe in Thomas as a fantasy threat than there have ever been.
In most Average Draft Position rankings, Thomas is checking in at about No. 45, which makes him a WR4 or WR5 in most leagues. A ranking that low is indicative those conducting early drafts have no faith that Thomas’ lower body will be able to endure the strain of a full season. Why not take someone else who provides more durability? The shine is definitely off of Thomas and, if history repeats itself with injury, this will be his last season in New Orleans.
The flip side of the argument is that a fantasy WR5 isn’t being counted on to be in weekly lineups. With four wide receivers in front of him on a roster, Thomas becomes a much more low-risk investment as the fifth guy.
While it’s understandable to be leery of Thomas by not touching him until you have rostered four receivers, few rank as low as him and have the ceiling that Thomas provides. Eventually, risk and value will converge – but most likely as a fifth receiver with big upside.
