It is highly unusual for a team to have three first-round picks in a single draft. In 2019, it happened twice. The then-Oakland Raiders had that particular haul that season as the result of trades that sent pass-rusher Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper packing, and the New York Giants had three first-round picks primarily as the result of a trade involving Odell Beckham Jr.
Neither of those classes really worked out, though the Giants’ three first-round picks (quarterback Daniel Jones, defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence, and cornerback Deandre Baker) did produce on player in Lawrence who the Giants deemed worthy of a fifth-year option. That Jones was not, and was taken with the sixth overall pick, is a damning indictment of former general manager Dave Gettleman. The Baker pick was no better — Baker proved to be a major liability in coverage on the field, and a problem off the field, and he was waived in September, 2020.
Still, Gentleman’s mistakes pale in comparison to the whiffs made by the Raiders. This was the first season in which head coach Jon Gruden had full organizational control after a 2018 season in which Reggie McKenzie was still the general manager. McKenzie, one of the more astute personnel guys around, was shoved out in favor of former NFL Network draft guru Mike Mayock, and with that and a bunch of first-round picks, the Raiders went impulse shopping.
Oakland took Clemson pass-rusher Clelin Farrell with the fourth overall pick, Alabama running back Josh Jacobs with the 24th pick, and Mississippi State safety Johnathan Abram with the 27th pick.
How has that turned out? On Friday, the Raiders announced that they would not be picking up the fifth-year options for any of those three players.
— Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) April 29, 2022
One of the primary reasons to take players in the first round is the potential of the fifth-year option; to waste three picks on guys that a new regime deems unworthy of that particular honor is just spectacularly bad strategy. And it started with the picks themselves. Gruden and Mayock (mostly Gruden) had a tendency to get too cute with their picks, thinking that they saw things other teams didn’t. Ferrell wasn’t an impact pass-rusher in college, and that’s worked its way to the NFL. Abram has been more of a box safety than a coverage enforcer, which isn’t a great way to spend a first-round pick, no matter what. And though Jacobs has shown potential as an every-down back, Gruden himself never seemed to know how to best use his talents.
Interestingly enough, Oakland’s strategies worked a lot better in the later rounds — they absolutely stole Eastern Michigan edge defender Maxx Crosby in the fourth round, and recently gave Crosby a four-year, $95 million extension with $53 million guaranteed. Tight end Foster Moreau also came out of the fourth round (from LSU), and Clemson receiver Hunter Renfrow was selected in the fifth round. Not bad for one of the NFL’s better red-zone route-runners.
So, that’s three later picks that almost make up for the first-day misses. Had the Raiders of the time taken Crosby, Moreau, and Renfrow in the first round of the 2019 draft, they would have been bashed all over the place as idiots at the time, and hailed as geniuses now that we know what we know.
As Mike McDermott (played by Matt Damon) said in the movie Rounders:
If you can’t spot the sucker in your first half-hour at the table, then you are the sucker. Guys around here will tell ya, you play for a living, it’s like any other job. You don’t gamble, you grind it out. Your goal is to win one big bet an hour, that’s it.
The art and science of the draft isn’t much different. If you’re guessing and gambling with your money, you’ll eventually get booted right off the table. It is indeed about winning one big bet an hour, especially in the first round.
