THE Met Office is issuing more weather warnings than before – perhaps in a "knee-jerk" response to criticism of its handling of recent storms – but people should not dismiss them, a meteorological expert has said.
Jim Dale, the founder and senior meteorological consultant at British Weather Services, said that factors including climate change were driving the number of weather warnings up – but also a tendency to err on the side of caution from the Met Office.
The UK weather service has issued an increasing number of warnings over the Christmas and New Year period, with four separate ones – two amber and two yellow – in place this weekend.
“Yes, there is a tendency for more warnings, and yes, I think it's played up by climate change,” Dale said when asked if their frequency was increasing.
“There's also an element of ‘you don't want to miss the boat’, and sometimes the Met Office does miss the boat. They missed it with Storm Bert. They were underestimating it.”
Dale said that the criticism had “inevitably” led the Met Office to more readily issue more severe warnings, adding: “It's an inevitable fallout that you will get a little bit of knee-jerk because of that.”
But, Dale said, issuing a warning can be something of a gamble due to the nature of weather projection – and that can leave people “between a rock and a hard place”.
Edinburgh saw its famed Hogmanay celebrations cancelled on December 30 amid yellow weather warnings. The weather then improved, leading to headlines about whether the trouble caused by the cancellation had been necessary.
Dale said that organisers could have “waited a bit longer” before calling the events off, but that the decision was understandable.
“There could have been serious problems, and then there would have been inquests into why it went ahead when there was a weather warning out. So they were stuck,” he said.
“London went ahead. It was getting advice all the time, of course. And I think they would have pulled the plug even an hour before if they thought it was too much.
“[There’d be] disappointed people, of course, that would have been the case, but rather be disappointed than dead.”
Despite an increase in the frequency of weather warnings, Dale said that it would be dangerous to think the UK weather service was merely “crying wolf”.
“During Storm Darragh [in early December], one person killed by falling trees was in a yellow warning, not a red warning, not in amber,” Dale said. “So they're still perilous. They're there for a good reason.”
Dale, who has written or co-written the books Surviving Extreme Weather and Weather Or Not?, said that some parts of the media “talk a lot of drivel” when it comes to Met Office warnings.
“The reason I know this is I go on places like GB News, Talk TV, where there's a lot of them, climate deniers," he said.
“They call it the nanny state, too much blah blah blah. But it's not, in my view. It's absolutely right to provide warnings when they are merited or even if they are potentially merited.
“At the end of the day, a warning is a forecast … and I've seen these things go out and errors have been missed or they've been exaggerated or they've been underplayed, all three. Why? Because that's the nature of the beast. This is not an exact science.”
Dale said that heeding weather warnings was only the “first step” as he called for more education about the impact of climate.
“It's becoming more of a situation where climate change is making things [worse],” he said. “It's bad enough with just normal situations when you do get hazardous weather.
“You don't go climbing Ben Nevis when the blizzard's been called. But you do get them, don't you? You get people climbing up in Glencoe and all the rest of it. It's not the time to do it.
“Warnings should come with a degree of education in terms of weather peril. Climate awareness should be taught in schools, should be put out by the various governments, national and regional. This should be part of the equation.”
A Met Office spokesperson said: “Severe weather warnings are not issued in a knee-jerk response – a team of expert meteorologists assess the weather and its potential impacts 24 hours a day, 365 days a year and issues severe weather warnings as appropriate to keep people and their property safe.
“Evidence from surveys indicates users are satisfied by the number of warnings.
“Storm Bert was well forecast, with first signs of disruptive weather signalled a week ahead.
“Numerous severe weather warnings were issued by the Met Office ahead of the system reaching the UK. The system was also named to aid the communication of the severe weather.”
