“The market is never wrong” keeps ringing in my head as I watch another rally in corn and soybeans fall apart in spectacular fashion, just as we had neared the higher end of what has been the recent range in value. Price action continues to tell the same tale, and that is that end users and speculators feel perfectly comfortable with the world outlook when it comes to having more than enough supply to meet demand.
When talking to friends on the cash side of the industry there seems to be a lot of confusion about just what it is that the market is doing. We have had an interesting stretch in cash grain, moving from the 2014-2019 period, where rallies were shallow, supplies were adequate, and traders were uninterested, to one of aggressive end user coverage and the inflation trade that ran from late 2020 until at least the start of last year.
