- Though it may come as a surprise to some, the Fed funds futures forward curve has shown, and continues to show the market pricing in a September rate cut by the US Fed.
- Meanwhile, gold has extended its long-term uptrend with many pointing to the expected rate cuts and weaker US dollar rather than the reality of increased uncertainty.
- Speaking of the greenback, the sideways trend it has been in during 2024 could be set to change by the end of the year.
My friends at Kitco News posted a piece Thursday, the author talking about how “Hot retail sales and lower CPI (Consumer Price Index) pave the way for September rate cut”. The author obviously has a great appreciation for all things statistical, while I on the other hand prefer to study what markets are saying, viewing statistics through the same whiskey glass as Mark Twain[i], “There are three types of lies: Lies, damned lies, and statistics”. Given that, make yourself a Mark Twain cocktail[ii] and join me in a discussion of what we see on the Fed fund futures forward curve mid-August.
