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- The National Soybean Index (intrinsic value of the soybean market) got within sight of its long-term downside target in mid-July, correlating to higher available stocks-to-use.
- New-crop futures spreads continue to cover a neutral-to-bullish level of calculated full commercial carry, while the old-crop August-September is as useless as ever.
- National average basis is a mixed bag, with Tuesday evening showing the NSI price above both the September and November futures contracts.
As I’ve said before, when it comes to the soybean market we lose two out of our three reads on real fundamental when the calendar page turns to July, only to return again as the sun sets on August when the summer quarter comes to an end. If you recall, the three reads I’m referring to are the National Soybean Index (national average cash price), basis (relationship between the cash index and the futures market), and futures spreads. It is understanding these three reads that give us an advantage over the rest of the industry that stands in line to receive government manna in the form of weekly, monthly, and quarterly USDA reports.
