LOS ANGELES — Just about the only thing missing from Southern California's forecast is snow.
As the state comes off a historic September heat wave, Southern California is bracing for Tropical Storm Kay, a system along the northern coast of Mexico's Baja California peninsula, that will likely deliver heavy rains, flash flooding, strong winds and muggy conditions.
As of Friday morning, Kay was about 200 miles off the coast of San Diego, said Miguel Miller, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in San Diego.
Temperatures are expected to remain high Friday, following a night of some historic lows that stayed unseasonably warm.
Though some areas were sprinkled with showers earlier than expected, rain is forecast to begin Friday and taper off by Saturday evening. Orange County will see about a half-inch of rain, and San Diego County should get about three-quarters on an inch. The mountains in San Diego and Riverside counties are projected to see the most rainfall, with up to 7 inches expected in Riverside County, and some of the low desert areas, like the Coachella Valley, are particularly vulnerable to intense rain, leading to flash flooding warnings.
The only areas not under flash flood warnings Friday morning were coastal San Diego County, Orange County and the Santa Ana mountains, Miller said.
Kay is ramping up wind gusts. A high-wind warning is in effect until midnight through the Inland Empire, the mountains of Riverside and San Diego counties, as well as the San Diego coast and valleys. Orange County and the San Bernardino mountains and deserts are under a wind advisory.
The strong gusts make the fire situation critical. Near Hemet, the Fairview fire had exploded to more than 27,000 acres on Thursday, with only 5% contained.
"The wind shift to the east winds is the big impact on the fire situation, so until the rain comes, it is a very dangerous situation," said James Brotheron, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in San Diego.
The storm is not expected to dump significant rain on Los Angeles County and the surrounding areas, but meteorologists issued a flash flood watch for L.A. and Ventura counties, as well as the Antelope Valley, which could see intense rainfalls over short periods of time. Forecasters are particularly concerned about Catalina Island, which is under a coastal flooding advisory.
Southern California last felt the effects of a tropical storm in 1997, when Tropical Storm Nora caused flooding, power disruptions and road accidents and destroyed several homes in Orange County.
Temperatures are expected to begin cooling off Saturday.
