What I liked best about Tadej Pogačar’s World Champs win in September was the confusion it generated. Everyone expected it but was still surprised when it happened. The way the race unfolded was just weird. Even afterwards, we couldn’t agree on very much about it, other than that it had been astonishing.
The question was not one of his physical ability, but of his tactics. In one corner, there have been several commentators who have paid homage to the brilliance and unpredictability, the seizing of a decisive moment, and the way the Slovenian toyed with the chasers in the closing stages by letting the gap come down to a dangerous margin, then extending again. Others have written about the ‘state of flow’ of a great athlete, and how instinct allows them to understand the tactics of a race in a way no one else can.
Pogačar, on the other hand, summoning all his instinctive grasp of bike racing, described the wild attack at 100km to go as, “Stupid.”
The truth is he could have won the race in a lot of different ways. He could have attacked a lap later, or two laps later, and the chances are the result would have been the same. As bike race fans we do have a bit of an enthusiasm for retrofitting the brilliance of the tactics to the quality of the outcome. The smartest tactic is the one that worked, so if you want to be a genius, an FTP of 7W/kg is a good place to start. I wouldn’t say brawn and brains are interchangeable in the world of cycling, but at the very least it’s clear that they are not independent variables.
Whatever way he’s doing it, it’s obvious that he’s the best male rider in the world right now. What is still up for debate is whether he’s the best ever. Being the best man ever has been Eddy Merckx’s job for a long time now. He took over from Fausto Coppi. Coppi got the job from Alfredo Binda, who took it on from Octave Lapize, and before Lapize we hadn’t really invented cycle racing. Admittedly Merckx has said that Pogačar is better than him, but he once said something similar about Tony Rominger, so he’s not the final authority on the subject.
The truth is it’s a bit too soon to tell. Pogačar hasn’t even reached the phase of greatness where everyone hates him yet. This is surprising, since in general you get to be despised long before you get to be even considered for the title of the greatest – Miguel Indurain, for example, or Chris Froome. If Pogačar has another year like this one, I promise you you’ll be scouring the streaming options for a race he isn’t in.
Another doubt is whether we really want the greatest of all time to be a current rider. The ‘best of all time’ in any sport is supposed to be a middle-aged former athlete, ideally one who looks like the hassled manager of a struggling hotel, so we can enjoy the juxtaposition. Their job is no longer to win things, it’s to turn up in a suit and hand out the medals while teenagers wonder loudly who the old fella is.
Most of all, before I approve the anointment, I want to see what happens when his physical gifts start to fade just a bit. At the moment there’s no problem he can’t solve by pedalling a bit harder. When others get close to his level, is he going to have the ability to still somehow win, by cunning, by sneakiness, by the almost supernatural ability some riders have to know what everyone around them is thinking and feeling?
Honestly, my guess is he will. But like tactics, we’re not going to truly be able to judge except in retrospect.
This feature originally appeared in Cycling Weekly magazine. Subscribe now and never miss an issue.
