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Barchart
Sohini Mondal

Is Moderna Stock Outperforming the Dow?

With a market cap of $19.7 billion, Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) is a biotechnology company specializing in messenger RNA (mRNA) medicines, with operations across the United States, Europe, and global markets. Its broad vaccine portfolio spans respiratory diseases (including COVID-19, RSV, influenza, and pandemic influenza), latent and enteric viruses, public health threats such as Zika and Mpox, and bacterial diseases like Lyme disease. 

Companies valued at $10 billion or more are generally considered "large-cap" stocks and Moderna fits this criterion perfectly. Moderna also develops oncology therapeutics ranging from cancer vaccines to T-cell engagers, as well as treatments for rare diseases, including cystic fibrosis and metabolic disorders.

 

Shares of the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based company have slipped 9.7% from its 52-week high of $55.20. MRNA stock has climbed 97.9% over the past three months, surpassing the broader Dow Jones Industrials Average's ($DOWI) 1.3% rise over the same time frame.

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MRNA stock is up 69% on a YTD basis, exceeding DOWI's marginal gain. Longer term, shares of Moderna have surged 64.6% over the past 52 weeks, compared to Dow Jones' 12.3% return over the same time frame.

The stock has shown a bullish trend, trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages since December 2025.

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Shares of Moderna soared 5.3% on Feb. 13 after the company reported Q4 2025 revenue of $678 million, beating expectations, and a narrower net loss of $826 million compared with a $1.1 billion loss a year earlier. Investors also reacted positively to Moderna reiterating its 2026 outlook of up to 10% revenue growth, alongside sharply reduced operating expenses, including a 31% year-over-year drop in R&D spending in Q4. 

The rally was further supported by pipeline progress, notably full enrollment of a Phase 3 norovirus vaccine trial with data expected in 2026 and full enrollment of the Phase 2 intismeran autogene bladder cancer trial.

In comparison, its rival Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) has lagged behind MRNA stock. LLY stock has declined 6.2% on a YTD basis and gained 8.4% over the past year. 

Despite MRNA's outperformance relative to the Dow over the past year, analysts are cautious about its prospects. The stock has a consensus “Hold” rating overall from the 24 analysts covering the stock. As of writing, the stock is trading above the mean price target of $40.95

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