- The 2024 corn market posted a solid rally to close out the month of March, with strong gains seen in both the National Corn Index and futures market.
- We've seen this before, though, as the same scenario played out back in 2014.
- Fundamentally the market hasn't changed, with futures spreads neutral-to-bearish for old-crop, neutral-to-bullish for new-crop.
Happy. My guess is that’s how most corn market bulls went home last Thursday given Watson’s[i] reaction following USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports. Note I didn’t say “reaction to” the reports, but “reaction following”. What’s the difference? If I can read what the various markets are saying about real fundamentals well in advance of the release of government numbers, so can Watson. Why more folks in the industry don’t understand that is beyond me, but it is what it is. To quickly recap: The National Cash Indexes, including corn, told us available stocks-to-use were much larger at the end of February than they were a year ago. USDA’s grain stocks figures agreed. The Nov24 soybean/Dec24 corn futures spread from September through February told us soybeans were buying planted area away from corn. Again, USDA’s prospective plantings guesses concurred. Yet, so many in the industry simply don’t, can’t understand the logic of watching markets. So they went home happy as March came to an end.
