Bitcoin prices continued to bob on Wednesday, hitting an intraday high around $84,000 following a weekslong pullback. Analysts at 10X Research projected a possible drop to $73,000, as the cryptocurrency felt for support around a key technical trading level. Bitcoin-related stocks and long ETFs reversed early gains into losses Wednesday. ETFs shorting bitcoin extended their year-to-date gains.
"This is a critical time when risk management, recognizing historical parallels, analyzing chart patterns, and closely monitoring market structure becomes essential," a group of analysts at 10X Research wrote in a Tuesday note. "Losses can accelerate quickly in deteriorating conditions."
The firm points to "striking" similarities between current conditions and the end of the last crypto bull market in 2021.
The loudest promoters hyped various coins with promises of upside as the crypto bull market sputtered in 2021. When prices collapsed, they then reframed the asset's volatility as a feature. Institutions then moved to take advantage of the spreads between crypto and other forms of decentralized finance vs. the traditional finance interest rate markets.
"This time, the playbook has shifted to exploiting the spread between BTC spots and futures, yet the underlying pattern remains the same," 10X Research wrote.
The firm noted that Ripple's XRP token in 2017 rallied to become the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, but it failed to reclaim its position for the 2021 bull run.
"A similar pattern is emerging with Ethereum this cycle, as market narratives have evolved from payments in 2017 to DeFi/NFTs in 2021 and now to meme coins in 2025 — each cycle bringing a new hype wave, shifting from Ripple to Ethereum to Solana," 10X wrote.
Solana has tumbled about 59% from its peak and is now struggling to hold support around $120 to $130. A break below the range could trigger further losses.
A Losing Game
"Today, we're seeing similar macro headwinds, microstructural inefficiencies, and price action patterns pointing toward a familiar cycle playing out once again as retail is losing," 10X wrote.
"Speculative hype can temporarily defy broader market trends before succumbing to reality," 10X continued. The firm said the cycle may have peaked when the Fed turned hawkish in mid-December, but the meme coin frenzy continued, driven by retail speculation. That frenzy helped bitcoin soar above $108,000 in January.
"However, as retail traders were used as exit liquidity and realized they were playing a rigged game, the market's topping formation likely transitioned into a crumbling structure," the firm said. Now, many retail investors are holding portfolios with meme coins that are falling.
"This structural decline indicates a weakening foundation, making now a time for caution — not complacency," 10X said, adding that bitcoin is "steadily heading" toward $73,000.
"If history is any guide, the next major (up) move will require a new narrative," according to the firm.
BitMEX exchange cofounder Arthur Hayes also expects bitcoin to fall back, at least to below $80,000.
"An ugly start to the week," Hayes wrote online Sunday. "Looks like BTC will retest $78k. If it fails, $75k is next in the crosshairs. There are a lot of options OI (open interest) struck $70-$75k, if we get into that range it will be violent."
In a separate Tuesday note, Markus Thielen of 10X Research noted that when bitcoin dipped below $80,000 earlier this week, about 70% of all selling came from investors who bought within the last three months.
Bitcoin Eyes Key Moving Average
Meanwhile, bitcoin this week fell to test its 200-day moving average, just above $83,000. Bitcoin on Sunday fell from its high above $92,800 last Thursday to $83,200, finding support at that technical line, CoinDesk data shows. The cryptocurrency dropped below the support on Monday and Tuesday. It rebounded above the moving average early Wednesday, before sliding back to $82,000.
Investors can find an advanced bitcoin chart on MarketWatch here. To see the 200-day moving average, edit the Simple Moving Average tab to 200 from the default 50-day.
Much of the drop to start the week was driven by tariff escalation between the U.S. and China. President Donald Trump also continues to engage in a trade war with Mexico and Canada, which has stifled momentum.
CoinDesk noted that bitcoin previously dipped below its 200-day moving average on Feb. 28 and March 2. During those instances, buyers stepped in and supported a price bounce.
Saylor Still Bullish
Despite the recent downtrend, Strategy cofounder Michael Saylor is still a major bitcoin bull. During the White House Crypto Summit on Friday, Saylor said the U.S. could unlock up to $100 trillion in economic value over the next decade — if it establishes the proper regulatory framework.
Saylor's plan categorized digital assets into four different classes: digital tokens for capital creation and innovation, digital securities for market efficiency, digital currencies for commercial markets and to strengthen the dollar's position, and digital commodities like bitcoin for wealth preservation.
He argued that his taxonomy would reduce regulatory uncertainty and offer a seamless integration with the traditional financial system, CoinDesk reported.
For the strategic bitcoin reserve, Saylor proposed the U.S. acquire 5% to 25% of the total bitcoin supply by 2035 through steady, programmatic purchases. Under that strategy, the reserve could generate between $16 trillion and $81 trillion by 2045, according to his estimates.
Price Action
Bitcoin pared its early gains to trade around $82,800 in the afternoon, now down a fraction over the prior 24 hours, CoinMarketCap data showed. Bitcoin is down about 11% in 2025.
The price of ethereum is down 3.5% during that period, falling to trade around $1,890. Ethereum has tumbled almost 44% this year.
Coinbase stock initially climbed 3% early Wednesday, then pared its advance to less than 1%.
MSTR stock rose about 2%, following its 8.9% gain on Tuesday.
The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF and other spot bitcoin ETFs slipped lower, after rising premarket Wednesday. Shares of the group rebounded about 5% on Tuesday. Still, the bitcoin ETFs are down about 11% this year.
Meanwhile, the ProShares Short Bitcoin ETF edged higher, pushing its year-to-date gain to almost 10%. ProShares' Ultra Short Bitcoin ETF advanced less than 1%, notching its gain for the year to about 13%.
You can follow Harrison Miller for more stock news and updates on X/Twitter @IBD_Harrison
