The number of fresh cases of COVID-19 in the country has been going up steadily in Delhi and Maharashtra, considered bellwether States in the country, as far as the pandemic goes. Is this an indication of a further COVID-19 wave in India, and what are the precautions that people and health systems have to take in order to avoid devastation on a scale as was seen during the second wave. In a conversation moderated by Ramya Kannan, J. Radhakrishnan, and Prabhdeep Kaur, discuss the possible scenarios. Edited excerpts:
Are the rising case numbers, and test positivity rate, that we are seeing in Delhi and Maharashtra indicative of a possible fourth wave of COVID-19 in India?
J. Radhakrishnan: This is a difficult question; whether the next wave will come or not depends on the type of variant that will come through. Secondly, it will also depend on the level of immunity in the population — both on account of recovery from a natural infection, and also on rapidly increasing vaccinations. Of course, we must remember that vaccination has happened over a period of a long time, and it is practical to expect varying levels of immunity from that. So our best position is that we need to be guarded, we just cannot be overconfident that there can be no more waves, because last time I remember in January-February of 2021, people were clearly overconfident. On the other hand, I personally feel that unless there is a dominant Delta-like variant at play, it may not be as bad as it was in May last year.
