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Foreign Policy
Foreign Policy
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Tom Gardner, Bronwyn Bruton, Florian Bieber, Wondemagegn Tadesse Goshu, Nizar Manek

Is Ethiopia Headed for Civil War?

A man enters a polling station on the day of Tigray's regional elections, on Sept. 9, 2020 in Mekelle. EDUARDO SOTERAS/AFP via Getty Images

ADDIS ABABA—In a major escalation of a bitter feud with his rivals in the northern region of Tigray, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ordered military action after what he said was an attack on a federal army camp in the early hours of Nov. 4. The announcement, which came after weeks of escalating tensions, may mark a dangerous tipping point for a country whose stability has been repeatedly tested since Abiy came to power in 2018.

The sharp deterioration did not come as surprise to close observers of Ethiopia’s once-promising transition to democracy—a shift that has largely been ushered in by Abiy, who also won a Nobel peace prize for his role in ending a 20-year cold war with neighboring Eritrea.

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