Donald Trump became the first-ever US president to be charged with a crime on 4 April when he appeared before a judge at Manhattan Criminal Court accused of falsifying business records.
The arraignment is in response to a grand jury indictment announced by New York County district attorney Alvin Bragg over a hush money payment Mr Trump is accused of making to porn star Stormy Daniels in 2016 to cover up an affair.
Mr Trump, who was also the first president in American history to be impeached twice in his chaotic one-term reign in the White House, jetted into New York’s La Guardia Airport in his personal Boeing 757 the day before the hearing, and returned to his Mar-a-Lago estate immediately after to give a speech railing against the indictment.
Documents released by Mr Bragg’s office after the arraignment accuse Mr Trump of 34 counts of falsifying business records in order to conceal a series of alleged hush money payments, including $130,000 to Ms Daniels from his attorney Michael Cohen, who was then reimbursed.
Though flanked by police, Mr Trump was not handcuffed, photographed for a mugshot or placed in a jail when he appeared for his arraignment before Judge Juan Merchan.
He then returned immediately to his Mar-a-Lago mansion in Palm Beach to give a prime-time televised address where he railed against the charges, Mr Bragg and Judge Merchan.
“The criminal is the district attorney because he illegally leaked massive amounts of grand jury information,” he said to loud applause.
“For which he should be prosecuted, or at a minimum he should resign.”
He also targeted Mr Bragg’s wife and the “Trump hating-judge with a Trump-hating wife and family whose daughter work for Kamala Harris”. Mr Trump’s words came despite the fact that Judge Merchan warned him to stop making threatening posts on social media that could inflame tensions or incite violence.
In the case, Mr Trump will be represented by a new lead counsel, former federal prosecutor and white-collar criminal defence attorney Todd Blanche, in New York, a lawyer who has previously represented Mr Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort and the ex-Rudy Giuliani associate Igor Fruman, among many others.
The former president denies the affair with Ms Daniels and any wrongdoing and has, predictably, insisted the episode is just another “witch hunt” cooked up by his political enemies.
He has been busy using the indictment to whip up his base and to raise campaign donations off the back of it in support of his 2024 presidential run.
He has also vented his fury on his own social media platform Truth Social, suggesting angrily on Monday evening that District Attorney Bragg should “indict himself” after leaking details of the arraignment “illegally”.
But the big question many onlookers will want to know is whether Mr Trump could ultimately face prison time if he is found guilty.
Danya Perry, a former deputy attorney-general for the state of New York, told Reuters that will certainly not happen on Tuesday and that she expects Mr Trump will be released on recognisance – a term for an agreement a defendant makes with a court to observe certain conditions, like returning when summoned, for instance.
New York abolished the need for bail in most cases involving misdemeanours and non-violent felonies, as is the case in this instance, in 2019.
As to the outcome for Mr Trump longer term, we cannot know at this point as the precise charges he faces have yet to be made public.
However, the charge of falsifying business records in the first degree is regarded as a low-level felony but does carry a typical sentence of up to four years in prison, so it is theoretically possible.
That said, a conviction would represent a first offence for a non-violent crime, making the prospect of jail less likely.
The defendant’s age, 76, might also provide grounds for a compassionate sentence.
Former Brooklyn prosecutor Arthur Aidala recently told Insider: “I can’t say for absolute 100 per cent certainty there can’t be jail because on the books, he can go to jail… [But] I do not see a scenario where Donald Trump spends one minute in jail.”
The case is expected to be a drawn-out affair and may not be resolved before the American public goes to the polls for the next presidential election in November 2024, so, without a resolution one way or the other, it need not necessarily prohibit Mr Trump from continuing his latest quest to secure the Republican nomination.
Interestingly, even if the former president were to be charged, there is actually nothing in the US Constitution that disqualifies a candidate from running with a criminal record, although he and his party may nevertheless be forced to conclude that the support for him is no longer there if he is seen to be tarnished by the scandal, as almost any other politician around the world would be.
