California Democrats are worried about two major "wild cards" for the state's biggest-ever mail-in voting election: changes to the U.S. Postal Service and President Donald Trump's rhetoric.
So far, California election officials aren't seeing the kind of postal delays that could result in voting delays even with the crush on the Postal Service in the coronavirus outbreak.
But California Secretary of State Alex Padilla wrote in a letter to Postmaster General Louis DeJoy that he is "gravely concerned" about national reports of USPS slowdowns so close to Election Day and changes in delivery protocol DeJoy has implemented to cut costs.
"I oppose your proposed changes to postal service and pricing as they create unnecessary risk so close to the election and undermine the ability of state and local election officials to administer free and fair elections," Padilla said in the letter on Monday.
Trump, meanwhile, has repeatedly cast doubt on California's voting policies since Gov. Gavin Newsom in May issued a coronavirus emergency order directing election officials to send mail-in ballots to registered voters this fall.
Trump has mischaracterized the direction, falsely contending the state plans to send ballots to all residents regardless of registration.
"The Governor of California is sending Ballots to millions of people, anyone living in the state, no matter who they are or how they got there, will get one," Trump tweeted in May. "That will be followed up with professionals telling all of these people, many of whom have never even thought of voting before, how, and for whom, to vote. This will be a Rigged Election."
It's not the case that "anyone living in the state" will get a mail ballot. Voters have to be registered at least 15 days before Election Day in order to receive one, according to the California Secretary of State's Office.
Unlike other states preparing for a mostly mail-in election in the pandemic, California has a lot of practice.
In the 2018 general election, 65% of ballots were vote-by-mail. In the 2020 primary, which occurred in the first week of March, before the country shut down because of the coronavirus concerns, 72% of ballots were vote-by-mail.
Californians also are accustomed to long waits for final voting results. In the 2018 general election, more than a few House races took days, a week or even longer to have an official call.
But worries persist that the president's repeated criticism of mail-in ballots and media reports about changes at the postal service will make voters question whether mail-in voting can be trusted.
"The short story is that we probably don't know right now. We should, looking historically, have a system that is already trusted and most voters are comfortable with, and have had some experience with," said Paul Mitchell, the vice president of election data tracking firm Political Data Inc. "But these are crazy times."
Padilla has said Trump going after California is "nothing new," and has persistently countered Trump's messages on the state's voting. "Donald Trump can't stop the November election," Padilla says in a video posted prominently on his social media accounts.
Voting by mail hasn't always been problem-free. In the 2020 primary, the Secretary of State's office disqualified more than 100,000 ballots, most of them because they arrived later than the three-day deadline after the primary date.
Officials say they're confident that problem won't be repeated. Ballots now must be postmarked by Nov. 3, but they'll be counted if they arrive at a registrar within 17 days of the election.
That should provide time for ballots to come in even with a strain on the U.S. Postal Service, said Sam Mahood, spokesman for the Secretary of State's Office.
Another significant way for voters to avoid having their ballot discounted is to make sure they sign it correctly, he said.
"It is important that voters make sure to sign the back of their vote-by-mail ballot return envelope," Mahood added. "If the signature is missing or does not match what is on the voter's registration record, the county elections office will attempt to contact the voter. If a voter cannot provide an updated signature, their ballot will not count."
California voters paying attention to contentious elections should be used to delays in results. State law requires officials to have results in all elections within 30 days. Mahood guaranteed they'll hit that even with a delayed timetable for mail-in ballots.
But don't count on results on Election Day, especially in close contests.
In 2018, seven Republican House districts flipped to Democrats in California. Many of those districts showed results favorable to Republicans on Election Day or the day after, but as elections officials received and counted more mail-in ballots, the results disproportionately rose for Democrats.
That's a normal trend, according to Mitchell.
"As we have seen for years, the early vote is much more Republican, largely because they are more homeowners and more stable and older, etc.," he said. "These Republicans have also been voting by mail for much longer as Republicans in California were much quicker to adopt voting by mail"
He said Democrats were more suspicious of mail voting for decades "because they thought it would hurt them politically if there were less in-person voting, and they knew that their voters move more and were more likely to lose or forget about a ballot."
Eventually, all seven districts were officially called for Democrats in 2018. Trump and other Republicans cried foul, sowing doubt without evidence that there was voter fraud that stole the election from Republicans. They cited the newly legal practice in California of people being allowed to deliver a ballot that is not their own to election officials, which Republicans refer to as ballot harvesting.
Now, Trump has been calling the entire vote-by-mail process into question nationwide, at times with a spotlight on California.
He insists it's different from an absentee ballot _ which is how Trump voted in the 2020 primary in Florida _ because absentee ballots have to be specifically requested. A handful of states like California will now send mail-in ballots to registered voters without a specific request, though most states still require a request for a mail-in ballot.
Trump and Republicans' rhetoric about mail-in ballots could skew typical electoral patterns, Mitchell said. Voters could hold on to their ballots or choose to vote in person, which could be problematic if there's a shortage of polling locations amid COVID-19 concerns.
"The question is if Republicans will still mail early, not believing what they are hearing from Fox News or the President, or if they will hold on to their ballots, vote at the polls, etc. This is very possible," Mitchell said. "It is also possible that the anti-voting-by-mail and problems at the post office convince voters of all political persuasions that the mail isn't safe and they all vote later than they have in the past."
For November, Mitchell said the trend pointed to between 80 and 85% of California ballots being vote-by-mail, before Newsom required the shift due to COVID-19.
Now, that number is less clear, he said, given coronavirus and Trump's opposition.
