After its excellent, albeit surprising, start to the 2023 Formula 1 season, Aston Martin hadn't been able to preserve that momentum through the rest of the year and into 2024.
Where Fernando Alonso scored 149 points in the opening 12 races of 2023, the veteran Spaniard has managed just 45 in the same number of races this term, without a podium finish among them.
Explaining Aston Martin's apparent downturn from 2023 and fluctuations in form across 2024 does not boil down to a single issue in a tightly congested field, but largely comes as the result of other teams making greater improvements between seasons.
Aston Martin's AMR23 was often the second- or third-quickest car at the start of last year, but the team failed to make the same amount of ground with its upgrades and ultimately settled in fifth in the constructors' championship.
It appears to have consolidated that position for the most part, although it had come under greater scrutiny from an improving RB team when the European season first began.
This could be traced back to an Imola upgrade that Aston Martin brought to the table, including a new front wing, floor, and bodywork that it hoped would raise the performance level of the car overall.
Instead, it made the car more difficult to drive; Fernando Alonso's practice crash and qualifying off at Imola rather suggested that the drivers were considerably more at odds with the car after the revisions. Naturally, this coincided with a slump in form; the team's sole points-scoring exploits in the next four races came at Montreal, where it managed a double points finish.
"We've got some balance characteristics that made the car a little bit harder to set up and drive, but I think most people are battling those. It's always a compromise," said Aston Martin performance director Tom McCullough.
"That said, we're needing to add just base performance to the car to be competitive with the people we're trying to race. "We fell a bit short [in Spain and Austria] and with the nature of those tracks. But we had the same spec car in Canada and had a much more competitive weekend. We sort of understand the reasons for that."
It's understood that the AMR24's issues largely flare up in circuits with longer-radius or faster corners, hence its lack of performance at Barcelona and during the final two sectors at the Red Bull Ring. GPS traces suggest that Alonso struggled to carry throttle into the final two corners, demonstrating the lack of confidence in the corners where a driver really needs to lean on their car.
Bringing a new front wing to the British Grand Prix sought to address some of the weaknesses in the higher-speed turns, given the proliferation of them around the Silverstone circuit. The team found its way to seventh and eighth, leading Alonso to remark that the team had gone "back to normality" with its new tweaks.
Team principal Mike Krack stated that he wanted "to be a little bit more conservative" and although he was pleased with the double points finish, he shared concern that neither Aston driver had been able to mount a bigger challenge to sixth-placed Nico Hulkenberg.
Explaining the next steps, McCullough said that the goals for Aston Martin's development path was twofold: adding "efficient" downforce to the AMR24, and continuing to wipe out the difficult traits of the car in longer corners.
The Silverstone team has upgrades planned for the next two races in Hungary and Belgium, with hopes to find an upward trajectory prior to the summer break.
"I think from the initial running in Bahrain when this car first hit the ground, relative to last year's car, we saw some characteristics that we've been trying to work on to reduce them," McCullough said.
"We're balancing that with just adding pure base load as well, because with the characteristics we've got, if we just add efficient downforce, the car goes quicker. We all know that. So we're sort of balancing those two.
"The balance of the car is maybe more challenging when we've got very-long-duration corners. It's harder than circuits with much-shorter-duration corners. The balance isn't as important there.
"So we are playing that trade. Ultimately, we want a car that's easy to work with trackside, easy for the drivers to drive, and you've got more overall performance."
Aston Martin is still working through its factory move, as the newest blocks start to near completion. The wind tunnel won't be online until 2025, meaning that the team will have to keep renting out Mercedes' tunnel in Brackley for the time being.
With continued recruitment, signing Ferrari's Enrico Cardile as chief technical officer and Andy Cowell as group CEO, Aston Martin is also hoping that it can improve in the short term before their new personnel starts to exert an effect on the team going forward.
And, when the wind tunnel is finally complete, it should be ready for service to develop the all-new 2026 machinery - a year in which Aston Martin will desperately hope to make an impression.
