There is organization-wide confidence in Allen Lazard ascending to become the No. 1 receiver for the Green Bay Packers during the 2022 season. The general manager, coach and quarterback all believe in him. Lazard’s path, especially as an undrafted free agent entering the NFL, is a relatively uncommon one. But veteran Randall Cobb made an interesting comparison when talking about Lazard’s new role as the top receiver this week.
He was specifically reminded of Jordy Nelson’s ascension during the early years of Aaron Rodgers’ tenure as the Packers starting quarterback.
“I think he was trending towards the end of the season on a level that we saw Jordy in 2010, you know, on the Super Bowl run. And he followed that season up in 2011 with a big year,” Cobb said. “So, I look forward to seeing the way Allen carries himself and continues to make plays throughout this training camp and into the season.”
Over the final five games of 2021, Lazard emerged from a mid-season slump and caught 21 passes for 290 yards and five scores. In 2010, Nelson had a 124-yard game in Week 16 and then exploded for 21 catches, 286 yards and two touchdowns over four playoff games.
Let’s do another comparison. Nelson’s first three seasons (2008-2010) look a lot like Lazard’s last three seasons (2019-21). (Note: This takes out Lazard’s 2018 season, in which he played just one game as an undrafted rookie.)
Take a look:
| Nelson (2008-10) | Lazard (2019-21) | |
| Games | 45 | 41 |
| Pass snaps | 833 | 1,053 |
| Catches | 100 | 108 |
| Targets | 149 | 158 |
| Catch % | 67.1 | 68.4 |
| Yards | 1,268 | 1,441 |
| Yards/catch | 12.7 | 13.3 |
| Yards/target | 8.5 | 9.1 |
| TD | 10 | 14 |
In 2011, or Nelson’s fourth season in Green Bay, he ascended to the No. 1 receiver role and caught 68 passes for 1,263 yards and 15 touchdowns.
Can Lazard follow the same path as Nelson, who used a terrific end to his third season and a bigger opportunity in Year 4 to transform himself from an efficient form of Robin in the Packers offense to a deadly version of Batman?
It’s difficult to say. In a complementary role, Lazard has been incredibly efficient, but there’s no guaranteeing he’ll be just as good when he’s the No. 1 receiver and more attention is on him on every snap. Nelson was probably the better receiver entering his fourth season. At the peak of his powers, No. 87 was an elite playmaker. No one really knows if Lazard can reach those levels.
But more targets are coming Lazard’s way, and the four-time NFL MVP at quarterback has unwavering trust in his ability. Mix more opportunities for a receiver with the trust of Rodgers, one of the greatest distributors of the football in history, and Lazard has a true chance to create a big season.
Let’s say Lazard’s targets simply double in 2022, going from 60 in 2021 to 120 this year. Reasonable. While not a perfect extrapolation, given all the unconsidered variables, including the rippling effect of losing a generational talent like Davante Adams, let’s also say Lazard plays at a statistical level equal to his last three seasons – meaning the same catch percentage, yards per target, etc.
Lazard’s past numbers extrapolated out over 120 targets would equal 82 catches, 1,092 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Not crazy numbers over a 17-game schedule for Aaron Rodgers’ No. 1 receiver.
Don’t sleep on Allen Lazard in 2022. Even if he’s not the next Jordy Nelson, the stats paint the picture of a player ready for a bigger opportunity, and the franchise’s unrelenting confidence in him should have Lazard well-positioned for a breakout season as the new No. 1 in Green Bay.
